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贝叶斯模型在非线性洪水事件场景中的参数估计和汇总。

Estimation of Parameters and Pooling in Nonlinear Flooding Event Scenarios with Bayesian Model.

机构信息

Department of Mathematics, College of Science and Humanities in Al-Kharj, Prince Sattam Bin Abdulaziz University, 11942 Al-Kharj, Saudi Arabia.

Department of Mathematics and Statistics, College of Sciences, P.O. Box 11099, Taif University, Taif 21944, Saudi Arabia.

出版信息

Comput Intell Neurosci. 2022 Aug 28;2022:6319197. doi: 10.1155/2022/6319197. eCollection 2022.

DOI:10.1155/2022/6319197
PMID:36072748
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9441350/
Abstract

Water-related tragedies are the highest common of all proven natural calamities and pose severe attacks on people and on socioeconomic status development. Due to the obvious controversy surrounding, their volume, location and time of incidence, geological swaths, and geophysical interrelations, flood events are difficult to completely control. Hence, complete flood prevention is always considered to be a viable choice. The specialized flood occurrences are investigated by developing a structural measure. In this paper, nonlinear flood event circumstance is determined by using a statistical Bayesian parametric approach for parameter estimation. A popular tool for estimating a flood design is model of nonlinear flood event. Nonlinear flood event models are subjected to a Bayesian technique for estimating parameter. The approach is based on the minimization function of square for models with nonlinear calculated peak discharges in terms of parameters. The observed and calculated peak discharges for numerous storms in the watershed, data on the pattern of error observed, and previous information on values of parameter all influence this objective function. The subsequent matrix for covariance is a measure of the calculated parameters' accuracy. Rainfall and runoff data from a Harvey River sample are used in this study to show the process.

摘要

水相关灾害是所有已证实的自然灾害中最常见的,对人类和社会经济发展状况构成严重威胁。由于其规模、发生地点和时间、地质带以及地球物理关系存在明显争议,洪水事件难以完全控制。因此,人们一直认为完全预防洪水是一种可行的选择。通过制定结构措施来研究专门的洪水事件。在本文中,使用统计贝叶斯参数方法来确定非线性洪水事件情况进行参数估计。非线性洪水事件模型是用于估计参数的流行工具。该方法基于最小二乘函数,根据参数计算非线性洪峰流量的模型。该方法基于最小二乘函数,用于根据参数计算非线性洪峰流量的模型。观测和计算的洪峰流量来自流域的许多风暴,观测到的误差模式的数据以及参数值的先前信息都影响该目标函数。随后的协方差矩阵是计算参数准确性的度量。本研究使用哈维河样本的降雨和径流量数据来展示这一过程。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/270e/9441350/1fb33401a847/CIN2022-6319197.002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/270e/9441350/e02d8521fd30/CIN2022-6319197.001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/270e/9441350/1fb33401a847/CIN2022-6319197.002.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/270e/9441350/e02d8521fd30/CIN2022-6319197.001.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/270e/9441350/1fb33401a847/CIN2022-6319197.002.jpg

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