Department of Agricultural Extension, Communication and Rural Development, University of Zanjan, Zanjan, Iran.
Department of Agricultural Extension and Education, Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University of Khuzestan, Khuzestan, Iran.
Sci Rep. 2022 Sep 8;12(1):15208. doi: 10.1038/s41598-022-19384-1.
The aim of the current study is to consider farmers' perceptions regarding the impacts of climate change on water resources and their intention toward adaptation in southwestern Iran. To this end, this study applied the theory of reasoned action and the norm activation model as well as these two models in combination. A descriptive quantitative research study was designed and conducted using cross-sectional survey methods among 250 farmers in Khuzestan province in southwestern Iran, selected through multistage sampling methods. Research data were collected through a structured questionnaire whose validity was confirmed by a panel of experts; scale reliability of the questionnaire was approved through a pilot study. Structural equation modeling analysis revealed that the norm activation model, the theory of reasoned action, and a model integrating the two can predict 32, 42, and 47%, respectively, of changes in farmers' intention toward performing climate-change adaptation activities. In the combined model, personal norm, subjective norm, and attitude were able to influence the farmers' intention to perform adaptive behaviors. Attitude towards adaptation is the most powerful predictor in explaining intention to adaptation. Subjective norm is the most important predictors of moral norms which is the logical confirmation behind the combination of the two models. In addition, the combined model has better predicting powerful that each model separately. The research findings hold valuable implications for policymakers seeking to increase the intention of farmers to implement adaptation activities against a background of harsh climate change and water scarcity in this region of Iran.
本研究旨在探讨伊朗西南部农民对气候变化对水资源影响的认知以及他们对适应气候变化的意愿。为此，本研究应用了理性行为理论和规范激活模型，以及这两个模型的组合。本研究采用描述性定量研究设计，通过横断面调查方法，在伊朗西南部胡齐斯坦省选择了 250 名农民进行研究，采用多阶段抽样方法进行抽样。研究数据通过结构化问卷收集，其有效性由专家组确认；通过预研究验证了问卷的量表可靠性。结构方程模型分析表明，规范激活模型、理性行为理论和整合这两个模型的模型可以分别预测农民实施适应气候变化活动意愿变化的 32%、42%和 47%。在组合模型中，个人规范、主观规范和态度能够影响农民实施适应行为的意愿。对适应的态度是解释适应意愿的最强预测因素。主观规范是道德规范的最重要预测因素，这是两个模型结合的逻辑依据。此外，组合模型具有比每个单独模型更好的预测能力。本研究结果为政策制定者提供了有价值的启示，他们希望在伊朗这一地区面临严峻的气候变化和水资源短缺的背景下，提高农民实施适应活动的意愿。
