Ricart Sandra, Gandolfi Claudio, Castelletti Andrea
Environmental Intelligence for Global Change Lab, Department of Electronics, Information and Bioengineering, Politecnico di Milano, Via Ponzio 34/5, 20133, Milan, Italy.
Department of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences, University of Milan, Via Celoria 2, 20133, Milan, Italy.
Heliyon. 2024 Dec 18;11(1):e41328. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e41328. eCollection 2025 Jan 15.
Understanding climate change in a precise and timely manner may assist in gauging the occurrence and seriousness of its impacts, thereby boosting the adaptive capacity and responsiveness of farmers. This investigation looks into farmers' knowledge of climate change, their perception of risks and impacts, and the strategies they anticipate to tackle the challenges of adaptation. A well-structured online survey covering risk awareness, perception, and adaptation was used to randomly sample 460 respondents from 12 irrigation districts in northern Italy. Descriptive and multivariate statistics, including structural equation modeling, were employed to outline the profiles of farmers, explore the drivers shaping their behavior, and disentangle the magnitude and direction underpinning their adaptive capacity. Findings revealed that farmers recognize changes in climate and perceive its variability and effects, such as rising temperatures, extreme heat events, and irregular precipitation. Farmers blend adaptive measures, including climate services and insurance, with preventive mechanisms like reducing fertilizer use, rotating and diversifying crops, and introducing soil conservation techniques. However, they encounter obstacles such as poor government assistance, expensive investments and overlay intricate regulations. Regarding decision-making processes, the structural model demonstrated that 1) recognizing climate change can sensibly predict alterations in farmers' behavior concerning climate impacts while 2) there is a lack of correlation between perceiving risks and implementing risk adaptation measures. Interestingly, factors such as farming experience, farm size, area under irrigation, and primary crop type significantly influence how risks are perceived and what measures are adopted. In light of these results, we offer guidance for upcoming research.
及时准确地了解气候变化有助于评估其影响的发生和严重程度，从而提高农民的适应能力和应对能力。本调查研究了农民对气候变化的认识、他们对风险和影响的认知，以及他们预期应对适应挑战的策略。通过一项精心设计的涵盖风险意识、认知和适应的在线调查，从意大利北部12个灌溉区随机抽取了460名受访者。采用描述性和多变量统计方法，包括结构方程建模，来勾勒农民的概况，探索塑造他们行为的驱动因素，并剖析支撑其适应能力的程度和方向。研究结果显示，农民认识到气候变化，并感知到其变化性和影响，如气温上升、极端高温事件和降水不均。农民将包括气候服务和保险在内的适应措施与诸如减少化肥使用、轮作和作物多样化以及引入土壤保护技术等预防机制相结合。然而，他们面临着诸如政府援助不足、投资成本高昂和监管复杂等障碍。关于决策过程，结构模型表明：1）认识到气候变化能够合理预测农民在气候影响方面行为的变化，而2）感知风险与实施风险适应措施之间缺乏相关性。有趣的是，诸如耕作经验、农场规模、灌溉面积和主要作物类型等因素显著影响风险的感知方式和所采取的措施。鉴于这些结果，我们为未来的研究提供了指导。
