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预测术前放疗后躯干和四肢软组织肉瘤术后重大伤口并发症风险的列线图

Nomogram Predicting the Risk of Postoperative Major Wound Complication in Soft Tissue Sarcoma of the Trunk and Extremities after Preoperative Radiotherapy.

作者信息

Ouyang Zhengxiao, Trent Sally, McCarthy Catherine, Cosker Thomas, Whitwell Duncan, Branford-White Harriet, Gibbons Christopher Leonard Maxime Hardwicke

机构信息

Department of Orthopedics, The Second Xiangya Hospital, Central South University, Changsha 410011, China.

Nuffield Orthopaedic Centre, Oxford University Hospital Foundation Trust, Oxford OX3 7LD, UK.

出版信息

Cancers (Basel). 2022 Aug 24;14(17):4096. doi: 10.3390/cancers14174096.

Abstract

Preoperative radiotherapy increases the risk of postoperative wound complication in the treatment of soft tissue sarcoma (STS). This study aims to develop a nomogram for predicting major wound complication (MaWC) after surgery. Using the Oxford University Hospital (OUH) database, a total of 126 STS patients treated with preoperative radiotherapy and surgical resection between 2007 and 2021 were retrospectively reviewed. MaWC was defined as a wound complication that required secondary surgical intervention. Univariate and multivariate regression analyses on the association between MaWC and risk factors were performed. A nomogram was formulated and the areas under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curves (AUC) were adopted to measure the predictive value of MaWC. A decision curve analysis (DCA) determined the model with the best discriminative ability. The incidence of MaWC was 19%. Age, tumour size, diabetes mellitus and metastasis at presentation were associated with MaWC in the univariate analysis. Age, tumour size, and metastasis at presentation were independent risk factors in the multivariate analysis. The sensitivity and specificity of the predictive model is 0.90 and 0.76, respectively. The AUC value was 0.86. The nomogram constructed in the study effectively predicts the risk of MaWC after preoperative radiotherapy and surgery for STS patients.

摘要

术前放疗会增加软组织肉瘤(STS)治疗中术后伤口并发症的风险。本研究旨在开发一种用于预测手术后严重伤口并发症(MaWC)的列线图。利用牛津大学医院(OUH)数据库,对2007年至2021年间共126例接受术前放疗和手术切除的STS患者进行了回顾性分析。MaWC被定义为需要二次手术干预的伤口并发症。对MaWC与危险因素之间的关联进行了单因素和多因素回归分析。制定了列线图,并采用受试者操作特征曲线(AUC)下的面积来衡量MaWC的预测价值。决策曲线分析(DCA)确定了具有最佳判别能力的模型。MaWC的发生率为19%。单因素分析中,年龄、肿瘤大小、糖尿病和初诊时转移与MaWC相关。多因素分析中,年龄、肿瘤大小和初诊时转移是独立危险因素。预测模型的敏感性和特异性分别为0.90和0.76。AUC值为0.86。本研究构建的列线图可有效预测STS患者术前放疗和手术后MaWC的风险。

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