Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Xi'an Jiaotong University Health Science Center, Xi'an 710061, China.
Department of Radiology, First Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an 710061, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2022 Aug 25;19(17):10603. doi: 10.3390/ijerph191710603.
Colorectal cancer is among the leading causes of cancer worldwide. Processed meat was known to be positively associated with a higher risk of gastrointestinal cancer. This study focused on the long-time trends of colorectal cancer mortality attributable to high processed meat intake in China from 1990 to 2019 and the projection for the next decade based on data obtained from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study. We used an age-period-cohort model to fit the long-time trend. The joinpoint model was conducted to estimate the average and annual change of the attributable mortality. The Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to project the crude attributable mortality from 2020 to 2030. An upward trend in colorectal cancer mortality attributable to high processed meat intake was observed for both sexes in China from 1990 to 2019, with an overall net drift of 4.009% for males and 2.491% for females per year. Projection analysis suggested that the burden of colorectal cancer incidence and mortality would still be high. Our findings suggested that colorectal cancer death attributable to high processed meat intake is still high in China, and elderly males were at higher risk. Gradually decreasing the intake of processed meat could be an effective way to reduce colorectal cancer mortality.
结直肠癌是全球主要的癌症死因之一。加工肉类已被证实与胃肠道癌症风险升高呈正相关。本研究聚焦于 1990 年至 2019 年中国因大量摄入加工肉类而导致的结直肠癌死亡率的长期趋势，并根据 2019 年全球疾病负担研究的数据对未来十年进行预测。我们使用年龄-时期-队列模型拟合长期趋势。采用连接点模型估计归因死亡率的平均变化和年度变化。采用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型预测 2020 年至 2030 年的粗归因死亡率。1990 年至 2019 年，中国男性和女性因大量摄入加工肉类而导致的结直肠癌死亡率均呈上升趋势，男性每年的净漂移率为 4.009%，女性为 2.491%。预测分析表明，结直肠癌发病和死亡负担仍将居高不下。我们的研究结果表明，中国因大量摄入加工肉类而导致的结直肠癌死亡人数仍然较高，老年男性的风险更高。逐渐减少加工肉类的摄入量可能是降低结直肠癌死亡率的有效方法。
