Colorectal Cancer Incidence and Mortality Trends and Analysis of Risk Factors in China from 2005 to 2015.

PURPOSE

This study aimed to analyze incidence and mortality trends and risk factors of colorectal cancer (CRC) in China during 2005-2015.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Patient cases were extracted from the Chinese Cancer Registry Annual Report. Joinpoint regression and Poisson regression were applied to analyze incidence and mortality trends and risk factors of CRC. Age-period-cohort model was used to evaluate the age, period and cohort effects on CRC.

RESULTS

The standardized incidence and mortality rate of CRC in China showed a decreasing trend during 2005-2015. The incidence in men (APC=-1.22%, P<0.05) decreased from 2005 to 2015 and decreased in women (APC =-3.55%, P<0.05) from 2005 to 2013, then increased during 2013-2015 (APC =18.77%, P<0.05). The incidence and mortality in urban areas were higher than those in rural (The incidence in urban: APC =-0.97%, P<0.05; rural: APC =1.94%, P<0.05; the mortality in urban: APC =-0.67%, P<0.05; rural: APC =0.29%). For age-specific rates, the incidence begins to increase significantly at 40-45 age group and reached a peak at 75; the mortality increased significantly at 45-50. The age effect increased with age in general. The 1920 birth cohort had the highest risk of colorectal cancer incidence and death. Poisson regression showed region, gender and age were independent risk factors of CRC.

CONCLUSION

The age-adjusted standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-adjusted standardized mortality rate (ASMR) of CRC in China during 2005-2015 were decreasing. A great concern on men, rural areas and people aged over 75 should be aroused to prevent colorectal cancer.