School of Public Administration, Central China Normal University, Wuhan 430079, China.
Institute of Natural Resource Governance, Central China Normal University, Wuhan 430079, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2022 Sep 4;19(17):11082. doi: 10.3390/ijerph191711082.
The willingness of farmers to transfer land on a big scale will be impacted when the rural social security system is not ideal, which will limit households' productive investment. This paper investigated the intermediate effects of social security on farmland transfer and productive investment by using zero-inflated models based on 4703 samples across China. Here are the findings: (1) Farmland transfer does not significantly impact productive investment without considering social society. (2) With the improvement in social security, farmland transfer significantly affects fixed investment but is not the same as households' current investment. (3) Under the social security constraints, there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between farmland transfer and current investment. (4) The partial effect of farmland transfer on fixed investment is significantly positive, and it shows a trend of rising volatility. The government should re-examine the expected effects of the farmland transfer policy and focus on the farmers' worries about the future. Meanwhile, it is necessary to comprehensively improve the social security system and improve the multi-dimensional survival ability of farmers to give full play to the critical role of farmland transfer in current investment.
当农村社会保障体系不完善时，农民大规模转让土地的意愿将会受到影响，这将限制农户的生产性投资。本文利用中国 4703 个样本的零膨胀模型，探讨了社会保障对农地流转和生产性投资的中介效应。研究结果表明：（1）在不考虑社会保障的情况下，农地流转对生产性投资没有显著影响。（2）随着社会保障水平的提高，农地流转对固定资产投资有显著影响，但与农户的当前投资不同。（3）在社会保障的约束下，农地流转与当前投资之间存在着倒“U”型关系。（4）农地流转对固定资产投资的部分效应显著为正，且呈现出波动性上升的趋势。政府应重新审视农地流转政策的预期效果，关注农民对未来的担忧。同时，有必要全面完善社会保障体系，提高农民的多维生存能力，充分发挥农地流转对当前投资的关键作用。
