Farmland Transfer, Social Security, and Households' Productive Investment: Based on China's CFPS Survey.

The willingness of farmers to transfer land on a big scale will be impacted when the rural social security system is not ideal, which will limit households' productive investment. This paper investigated the intermediate effects of social security on farmland transfer and productive investment by using zero-inflated models based on 4703 samples across China. Here are the findings: (1) Farmland transfer does not significantly impact productive investment without considering social society. (2) With the improvement in social security, farmland transfer significantly affects fixed investment but is not the same as households' current investment. (3) Under the social security constraints, there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between farmland transfer and current investment. (4) The partial effect of farmland transfer on fixed investment is significantly positive, and it shows a trend of rising volatility. The government should re-examine the expected effects of the farmland transfer policy and focus on the farmers' worries about the future. Meanwhile, it is necessary to comprehensively improve the social security system and improve the multi-dimensional survival ability of farmers to give full play to the critical role of farmland transfer in current investment.