Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France.
Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France.
Breast. 2022 Dec;66:15-23. doi: 10.1016/j.breast.2022.08.010. Epub 2022 Sep 2.
BACKGROUND: Breast cancer is the most commonly diagnosed cancer worldwide, and its burden has been rising over the past decades. In this article, we examine and describe the global burden of breast cancer in 2020 and predictions for the year 2040. METHODS: Estimates of new female breast cancer cases and deaths in 2020 were abstracted from the GLOBOCAN database. Age-standardized incidence and mortality rates were calculated per 100,000 females by country, world region, and level of human development. Predicted cases and deaths were computed based on global demographic projections for the year 2040. RESULTS: Over 2.3 million new cases and 685,000 deaths from breast cancer occurred in 2020. Large geographic variation across countries and world regions exists, with incidence rates ranging from <40 per 100,000 females in some Asian and African countries, to over 80 per 100,000 in Australia/New Zealand, Northern America, and parts of Europe. Smaller geographical variation was observed for mortality; however, transitioning countries continue to carry a disproportionate share of breast cancer deaths relative to transitioned countries. By 2040, the burden from breast cancer is predicted to increase to over 3 million new cases and 1 million deaths every year because of population growth and ageing alone. CONCLUSION: Breast cancer is the most common cancer worldwide and continues to have a large impact on the global number of cancer deaths. Global efforts are needed to counteract its growing burden, especially in transitioning countries where incidence is rising rapidly, and mortality rates remain high.
背景:乳腺癌是全球最常见的癌症,其负担在过去几十年中一直在上升。本文旨在研究和描述 2020 年全球乳腺癌负担,并对 2040 年的情况进行预测。
方法:从 GLOBOCAN 数据库中提取 2020 年女性乳腺癌新发病例和死亡人数的估计值。按国家、世界区域和人类发展水平计算每 10 万名女性的年龄标准化发病率和死亡率。根据 2040 年全球人口预测计算预测病例和死亡人数。
结果:2020 年全球有超过 230 万例新发病例和 68.5 万例乳腺癌死亡。国家和世界区域之间存在较大的地理差异,发病率从某些亚洲和非洲国家的每 10 万女性<40 例到澳大利亚/新西兰、北美和欧洲部分地区的每 10 万女性超过 80 例不等。死亡率的地理差异较小;然而,转型国家乳腺癌死亡的负担相对于已转型国家仍不成比例。到 2040 年,仅由于人口增长和老龄化,乳腺癌负担预计每年将增加到 300 多万例新发病例和 100 多万例死亡。
结论:乳腺癌是全球最常见的癌症,继续对全球癌症死亡人数产生重大影响。需要全球共同努力来应对其不断增加的负担,特别是在发病率迅速上升且死亡率仍然较高的转型国家。
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