Morgan Eileen, Arnold Melina, Gini A, Lorenzoni V, Cabasag C J, Laversanne Mathieu, Vignat Jerome, Ferlay Jacques, Murphy Neil, Bray Freddie
Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France
Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France.
Gut. 2023 Feb;72(2):338-344. doi: 10.1136/gutjnl-2022-327736. Epub 2022 Sep 8.
Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the third most common cancer worldwide. The geographical and temporal burden of this cancer provides insights into risk factor prevalence and progress in cancer control strategies. We examine the current and future burden of CRC in 185 countries in 2020 and 2040.
Data on CRC cases and deaths were extracted from the GLOBOCAN database for the year 2020. Age-standardised incidence and mortality rates were calculated by sex, country, world region and Human Development Index (HDI) for 185 countries. Age-specific rates were also estimated. The predicted number of cases and deaths in 2040 were calculated based on global demographic projections by HDI.
Over 1.9 million new CRC cases and 930 000 deaths were estimated in 2020. Incidence rates were highest in Australia/ New Zealand and European regions (40.6 per 100 000, males) and lowest in several African regions and Southern Asia (4.4 per 100 000, females). Similar patterns were observed for mortality rates, with the highest observed in Eastern Europe (20.2 per 100 000, males) and the lowest in Southern Asia (2.5 per 100 000, females). The burden of CRC is projected to increase to 3.2 million new cases and 1.6 million deaths by 2040 with most cases predicted to occur in high or very high HDI countries.
CRC is a highly frequent cancer worldwide, and largely preventable through changes in modifiable risk factors, alongside the detection and removal of precancerous lesions. With increasing rates in transitioning countries and younger adults, there is a pressing need to better understand and act on findings to avert future cases and deaths from the disease.
结直肠癌（CRC）是全球第三大常见癌症。这种癌症的地理和时间负担为了解风险因素的流行情况以及癌症控制策略的进展提供了线索。我们研究了2020年和2040年185个国家结直肠癌的当前和未来负担。
从GLOBOCAN数据库中提取2020年结直肠癌病例和死亡数据。计算了185个国家按性别、国家、世界区域和人类发展指数（HDI）划分的年龄标准化发病率和死亡率。还估计了特定年龄发病率。根据HDI的全球人口预测计算了2040年的预计病例数和死亡数。
2020年估计有超过190万例新发结直肠癌病例和93万例死亡。发病率在澳大利亚/新西兰和欧洲地区最高（男性每10万人中40.6例），在几个非洲地区和南亚最低（女性每10万人中4.4例）。死亡率也呈现类似模式，在东欧最高（男性每10万人中20.2例），在南亚最低（女性每10万人中2.5例）。预计到2040年，结直肠癌负担将增加到320万例新发病例和160万例死亡，预计大多数病例将发生在高或非常高HDI国家。
结直肠癌是全球一种高发癌症，通过改变可改变的风险因素以及检测和切除癌前病变，在很大程度上是可以预防的。随着转型国家和年轻人发病率的上升，迫切需要更好地理解这些发现并采取行动，以避免未来出现该疾病的病例和死亡。
