Department of Infectious Diseases with Epidemiology, Sumy State University, Rymskogo-Korsakova 2, Sumy, Ukraine.
Department of Hygiene, Epidemiology and Occupational Diseases, Kharkiv Medical Academy of Postgraduate Education, Amosova, 58, Kharkiv, Ukraine.
Folia Med Cracov. 2022 Jun 29;62(1):103-120. doi: 10.24425/fmc.2022.141694.
Coronavirus infection (COVID-19) is a highly infectious disease of viral etiology. SARS-CoV-2 virus was first identified during the investigation of the outbreak of respiratory disease in Wuhan, China in December 2019. And already on March 11, 2020 COVID-19 in the world was characterized by the WHO as a pandemic. In Ukraine the situation with incidence COVID-19 remains difficult. The purpose of this study is to to develop a mathematical forecasting model for COVID-19 incidence in Ukraine using an exponential smoothing method. The article analyzes reports on basic COVID-19 incidence rates from 29.02.2019 to 01.10.2021. In order to determine the forecast levels of statistical indicators that characterize the epidemic process of COVID-19 the method of exponential smoothing was used. It is expected that from 29.02.2019 to 01.10.2021 the epidemic situation of COVID-19 incidence will stabilize. The indicator of "active patients" will range from 159.04 to 353.63 per 100 thousand people. The indicator of "hospitalized patients" can reach 15.43 and "fatalities" ‒ 1.87. The use of the method of exponential smoothing based on time series models for modeling the dynamics of COVID-19 incidence allows to develop and implement scientifically sound methods in order to prevent, quickly prepare health care institutions for hospitalization.
冠状病毒感染（COVID-19）是一种具有高度传染性的病毒性疾病。SARS-CoV-2 病毒是在 2019 年 12 月对中国武汉发生的呼吸道疾病爆发进行调查时首次发现的。而早在 2020 年 3 月 11 日，世界卫生组织就将 COVID-19 定性为大流行。在乌克兰，COVID-19 的发病率情况仍然很困难。本研究的目的是使用指数平滑法为乌克兰 COVID-19 发病率建立数学预测模型。本文分析了 2019 年 2 月 29 日至 2021 年 1 月 10 日基本 COVID-19 发病率报告。为了确定表征 COVID-19 流行过程的统计指标的预测水平，使用了指数平滑法。预计从 2019 年 2 月 29 日至 2021 年 1 月 10 日，COVID-19 发病率的疫情将稳定下来。“活跃患者”指标将在每 10 万人 159.04 至 353.63 之间。“住院患者”指标可达 15.43，“死亡”指标为 1.87。基于时间序列模型的指数平滑方法用于对 COVID-19 发病率的动态建模，可以制定并实施科学合理的方法，以预防疫情，并使医疗机构迅速做好住院准备。
