Theoretical framework for the emergent floe size distribution in the marginal ice zone: the case for log-normality.

Sea ice is not horizontally homogeneous on large scales. Its morphology is inherently discrete and made of individual floes. In recent years, sea ice models have incorporated this horizontal heterogeneity. The modelling framework considers an evolution equation for the probability density function of the floe size distribution (FSD) with forcing terms that represent the effects of several physical processes. Despite the modelling effort, a key question remains: What is the FSD emerging from the collection of all forcing processes? Field observations have long suggested that the FSD follows a power law, but this result has not been reproduced by models or laboratory experiments. The theoretical framework for FSD dynamics in response to physical forcings is presented. Wave-induced breakup is further examined with an emphasis on how it affects the FSD. Recent modelling results suggesting the consistent emergence of a log-normal distribution as a result of that process are further discussed. Log-normality is also found in a dataset of floe sizes, which was originally analysed under the power law hypothesis. A simple stochastic process of FSD dynamics, based on random fragmentation theory, is further shown to predict log-normality. We therefore conjecture that, in some situations, the emergent FSD follows a log-normal distribution. This article is part of the theme issue 'Theory, modelling and observations of marginal ice zone dynamics: multidisciplinary perspectives and outlooks'.