Evaluating the anthropogenic nitrogen emissions to water using a hybrid approach in a city cluster: Insights into historical evolution, attribution, and mitigation potential.

Anthropogenic reactive nitrogen (Nr) emissions from agricultural production and food consumption in city clusters have caused water quality degradation and scarcity. In this study, anthropogenic Nr emissions to the water environment were quantitatively evaluated in the Yangtze River Delta city cluster from 2011 to 2020 using coupling nitrogen (N) flow analysis and the grey water footprint (GWF) method. The spatiotemporal characteristics of the GWF and the relative contributions of natural and human factors to the water pollution level (WPL) were analyzed. The results showed that from 2011 to 2020, the total N-related GWF decreased by 12.1 %, mainly driven by reduced fertilizer application and livestock numbers. In 2020, the primary pollution source changed from livestock to humans; however, non-point sources still dominated the GWF. The spatial clustering trend of the GWF was significant: high and low GWF were mainly concentrated in the northeast and southwest regions, respectively. From 2011 to 2020, the mean center of the GWF moved west due to the decrease and increase in the eastern and western regions, respectively, supporting the pollution haven hypothesis. The WPL ranged from 2.67 to 5.03 and fluctuated due to variations in precipitation. The relative contributions of natural and human factors to the WPL evolution were 72.9 % and 27.1 %, respectively. According to the scenario analysis, increasing the N use efficiency to 50 %, manure recycling rate to 80 %, and sewage treatment rate in urban and rural regions to 98 % and 40 %, respectively, could decrease GWF by 39.6 %. The present study establishes an open framework to evaluate anthropogenic N emissions to water, and the outcomes provide valuable references for sustainable N management in city clusters.