Department of Operations, Information, and Decisions.
J Exp Psychol Gen. 2023 Feb;152(2):571-589. doi: 10.1037/xge0001291. Epub 2022 Sep 12.
Can overconfidence be reduced by asking people to provide a belief distribution over all possible outcomes-that is, by asking them to indicate how likely possible outcomes are? Although prior research suggests that the answer is "yes," that research suffers from methodological confounds that muddle its interpretation. In our research, we remove these confounds to investigate whether providing a belief distribution truly reduces overconfidence. In 10 studies, participants made predictions about upcoming sports games or other participants' preferences, and then indicated their confidence in these predictions using rating scales, likelihood judgments, and/or incentivized wagers. Contrary to prior research, and to our own expectations, we find that providing a belief distribution usually overconfidence, because doing so seems to reinforce people's prior beliefs. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).
人们是否可以通过要求他们提供对所有可能结果的置信分布（即，要求他们指出可能结果的可能性）来降低过度自信？尽管先前的研究表明答案是肯定的，但该研究存在方法上的混淆，使其解释变得混乱。在我们的研究中，我们消除了这些混淆，以调查提供置信分布是否真的能降低过度自信。在 10 项研究中，参与者对即将到来的体育比赛或其他参与者的偏好做出预测，然后使用评分量表、可能性判断和/或有奖励的赌注来表示他们对这些预测的信心。与先前的研究以及我们自己的预期相反，我们发现提供置信分布通常会增加过度自信，因为这样做似乎加强了人们的先入之见。（PsycInfo 数据库记录（c）2023 APA，保留所有权利）。
