Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, CNRS.
J Exp Psychol Gen. 2023 Sep;152(9):2544-2558. doi: 10.1037/xge0001411. Epub 2023 May 8.
Perceptual confidence has been an important topic recently. However, one key limitation in current approaches is that most studies have focused on confidence judgments made for single decisions. In three experiments, we investigate how these local confidence judgments relate and contribute to global confidence judgments, by which observers summarize their performance over a series of perceptual decisions. We report two main results. First, we find that participants exhibit more overconfidence in their local than in their global judgments of performance, an observation mirroring the aggregation effect in knowledge-based decisions. We further show that this effect is specific to confidence judgments and does not reflect a calculation bias. Second, we document a novel effect by which participants' global confidence is larger for sets which are more heterogeneous in terms of difficulty, even when actual performance is controlled for. Surprisingly, we find that this effect of variability also occurs at the level of local confidence judgments, in a manner that fully explains the effect at the global level. Overall, our results indicate that global confidence is based on local confidence, although these two processes can be partially dissociated. We discuss possible theoretical accounts to relate and empirical investigations of how observers develop and use a global sense of perceptual confidence. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).
最近，感知信心一直是一个重要的话题。然而，目前方法的一个关键限制是，大多数研究都集中在对单个决策的信心判断上。在三个实验中，我们通过观察者对一系列感知决策的综合表现来研究这些局部信心判断如何相关并有助于全局信心判断。我们报告了两个主要结果。首先，我们发现参与者在他们的局部判断中表现出比他们的全局判断更大的过度自信，这一观察反映了基于知识的决策中的聚合效应。我们进一步表明，这种效应是特定于信心判断的，并不反映计算偏差。其次，我们记录了一个新的效应，即当实际表现得到控制时，参与者的全局信心对于难度更不均匀的集合更大。令人惊讶的是，我们发现这种变异性的效应也出现在局部信心判断的水平上，以一种完全解释全局水平效应的方式。总的来说，我们的结果表明，全局信心是基于局部信心的，尽管这两个过程可以部分分离。我们讨论了可能的理论解释，并对观察者如何发展和使用全局感知信心进行了实证研究。
