Department of Mathematics, Central University of Rajasthan, Ajmer, Rajasthan, India.
Department of Mathematics, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA.
J Biol Dyn. 2022 Dec;16(1):665-712. doi: 10.1080/17513758.2022.2116493.
In this paper we assess the effectiveness of different non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) against COVID-19 utilizing a compartmental model. The local asymptotic stability of equilibria (disease-free and endemic) in terms of the basic reproduction number have been determined. We find that the system undergoes a backward bifurcation in the case of imperfect quarantine. The parameters of the model have been estimated from the total confirmed cases of COVID-19 in India. Sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number has been performed. The findings also suggest that effectiveness of face masks plays a significant role in reducing the COVID-19 prevalence in India. Optimal control problem with several control strategies has been investigated. We find that the intervention strategies including implementation of lockdown, social distancing, and awareness only, has the highest cost-effectiveness in controlling the infection. This combined strategy also has the least value of average cost-effectiveness ratio (ACER) and associated cost.
本文利用房室模型评估了不同非药物干预（NPIs）措施对 COVID-19 的有效性。基于基本再生数，确定了平衡点（无病和地方病）的局部渐近稳定性。我们发现，在不完全隔离的情况下，系统会发生向后分歧。该模型的参数是根据印度 COVID-19 确诊病例总数估计的。对基本再生数进行了敏感性分析。研究结果还表明，口罩的有效性在降低印度 COVID-19 患病率方面发挥了重要作用。对几种控制策略的最优控制问题进行了研究。我们发现，包括实施封锁、保持社交距离和仅进行宣传在内的干预策略在控制感染方面最具成本效益。这种联合策略还具有最低的平均成本效益比（ACER）和相关成本。
