Department of Evolution, Ecology, and Behavior, University of Illinois, Champaign, IL, 61820, USA.
Department of Biology, Lund University, Sölvegatan 37, 223 62, Lund, Sweden.
Oecologia. 2022 Oct;200(1-2):259-271. doi: 10.1007/s00442-022-05251-3. Epub 2022 Sep 13.
Increases in temperature related to global warming have important implications for organismal fitness. For ectotherms inhabiting temperate regions, 'winter warming' is likely to be a key source of the thermal variation experienced in future years. Studies focusing on the active season predict largely positive responses to warming in the reptiles; however, overlooking potentially deleterious consequences of warming during the inactive season could lead to biased assessments of climate change vulnerability. Here, we review the overwinter ecology of reptiles, and test specific predictions about the effects of warming winters, by performing a meta-analysis of all studies testing winter warming effects on reptile traits to date. We collated information from observational studies measuring responses to natural variation in temperature in more than one winter season, and experimental studies which manipulated ambient temperature during the winter season. Available evidence supports that most reptiles will advance phenologies with rising winter temperatures, which could positively affect fitness by prolonging the active season although effects of these shifts are poorly understood. Conversely, evidence for shifts in survivorship and body condition in response to warming winters was equivocal, with disruptions to biological rhythms potentially leading to unforeseen fitness ramifications. Our results suggest that the effects of warming winters on reptile species are likely to be important but highlight the need for more data and greater integration of experimental and observational approaches. To improve future understanding, we recap major knowledge gaps in the published literature of winter warming effects in reptiles and outline a framework for future research.
全球变暖导致的温度升高对生物适应性有重要影响。对于生活在温带地区的变温动物来说，“冬季变暖”很可能是未来几年经历的热变化的一个关键来源。关注活跃季节的研究预测，变温动物对变暖会有很大的积极响应；然而，如果忽略了非活跃季节变暖可能带来的有害后果，可能会导致对气候变化脆弱性的评估存在偏差。在这里，我们综述了爬行动物的越冬生态学，并通过对迄今为止所有测试冬季变暖对爬行动物特征影响的研究进行荟萃分析，检验了冬季变暖的具体预测。我们汇集了来自观察性研究的数据，这些研究在一个以上的冬季季节测量了对温度自然变化的反应，以及在冬季期间操纵环境温度的实验研究。现有证据表明，随着冬季温度的升高，大多数爬行动物的物候期将提前，这可能通过延长活跃季节来积极影响适应性，尽管这些变化的影响还不太清楚。相反，关于对变暖冬季的生存和身体状况的反应的证据尚无定论，生物节律的中断可能导致适应性的不可预见的后果。我们的研究结果表明，冬季变暖对爬行动物物种的影响可能很重要，但也强调了需要更多的数据和更综合的实验和观察方法。为了提高未来的理解，我们总结了冬季变暖对爬行动物影响的已发表文献中的主要知识空白，并概述了未来研究的框架。
