Uppsala University, Animal Ecology, Department of Ecology and Genetics, Evolutionary Biology Center, Norbyvägen 18D, S-75236, Uppsala, Sweden.
IMIB-Biodiversity Research Institute (Univ. Oviedo-CSIC-Princ. Asturias), c/ Gonzalo Gutiérrez Quirós s/n, 33600, Mieres-Asturias, Spain.
Sci Rep. 2020 Jun 1;10(1):8822. doi: 10.1038/s41598-020-65608-7.
The magnitude and ecological impact of climate change varies with latitude. Several recent models have shown that tropical ectotherms face the greatest risk from warming because they currently experience temperatures much closer to their physiological optimum than temperate taxa. Even a small increase in temperature may thus result in steep fitness declines in tropical species but increased fitness in temperate species. This prediction, however, is based on a model that does not account for latitudinal differences in activity periods. Temperate species in particular may often experience considerably higher temperatures than expected during the active season. Here, we integrate data on insect warming tolerance and temperature-dependent development to re-evaluate latitudinal trends in thermal safety margins after accounting for latitudinal trends in insect seasonal activity. Our analyses suggest that temperate and tropical species differ far less in thermal safety margins than commonly assumed, and add to the recent number of studies suggesting that tropical and temperate species might face similar levels of threat from climate change.
气候变化的规模和生态影响因纬度而异。最近的一些模型表明，热带外温动物面临的变暖风险最大，因为它们目前所处的温度比温带分类群更接近生理最佳温度。因此，即使温度略有升高，热带物种的适应度也会急剧下降，而温带物种的适应度则会增加。然而，这一预测是基于一个没有考虑活动期纬度差异的模型。特别是温带物种在活跃季节期间可能经常经历比预期高得多的温度。在这里，我们整合了昆虫耐热性和温度依赖性发育的数据，在考虑到昆虫季节性活动的纬度趋势后，重新评估了热安全裕度的纬度趋势。我们的分析表明，温带和热带物种在热安全裕度方面的差异远小于通常假设的那样，这增加了最近的一些研究表明，热带和温带物种可能面临着类似程度的气候变化威胁。
