Barer M L, Evans R G, Hertzman C, Lomas J
Soc Sci Med. 1987;24(10):851-62. doi: 10.1016/0277-9536(87)90186-9.
The proportion of the population in the older age groups will increase dramatically over the next four decades. Furthermore, current per capita rates of hospital and medical care utilization rise sharply with age beyond the age of about 55. However, demographic trends alone do not imply health care cost increases in excess of what is supportable by normal economic growth. A 'cost crisis' will only occur if per capita rates of utilization among the elderly increase faster than for the general population. In this paper we present some descriptive data from published sources suggesting that this has been the case over the recent past in one Canadian province. The implications for the policy debate over the effects of an aging population are discussed.
在未来四十年中，老年人群体在总人口中的比例将急剧增加。此外，目前人均住院率和医疗服务利用率在大约55岁之后会随着年龄的增长而急剧上升。然而，仅人口趋势并不意味着医疗保健成本的增长会超过正常经济增长所能承受的范围。只有当老年人的人均利用率增长速度超过普通人群时，才会出现“成本危机”。在本文中，我们展示了一些来自已发表资料的描述性数据，表明在加拿大的一个省份，最近情况就是如此。文中还讨论了这一情况对关于人口老龄化影响的政策辩论的启示。
