Harrisburg University of Science and Technology, Harrisburg, Pennsylvania 17101, United States.
University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta T2N 1N4, Canada.
Environ Sci Technol. 2022 Oct 18;56(20):14734-14742. doi: 10.1021/acs.est.2c05039. Epub 2022 Sep 29.
Coal-to-gas switching in the power sector, as happening in the U.S., has been a key driver of near-term greenhouse gas emissions reductions. Can this success be replicated around the world? Here, we explore the limits of a global, plant-level, coal-to-gas transition arising from pipeline availability constraints. Globally, only 43% of coal capacity is within 14 km of a nearby pipeline, the median distance for recent coal-to-gas conversions. Furthermore, plant-to-pipeline distance distributions vary widely-only 30% of coal capacity in India is within 14 km of a nearby pipeline. Most global coal fleets are in the intermediate space of balancing two competing interests-having a young coal fleet with high "avoided" emissions potential through coal-to-gas switching but without access to low-cost gas resources. A global stocktake based on coal fleet age, pipeline access, and natural gas supply security suggests that a coal-to-gas transition in the power sector is unlikely to be a universal climate solution.
电力部门的煤改气，如美国正在进行的那样，是近期温室气体减排的主要驱动因素。这一成功能否在全球范围内复制？在这里，我们探讨了由于管道可用性限制而导致的全球、工厂层面的煤改气转型的极限。在全球范围内，只有 43%的煤炭产能距离附近管道在 14 公里以内，这是最近煤改气转化的中位数距离。此外，工厂到管道的距离分布差异很大——印度只有 30%的煤炭产能距离附近管道在 14 公里以内。大多数全球煤炭船队处于平衡两个竞争利益的中间地带——拥有一个年轻的煤炭船队，通过煤改气切换具有高“避免”排放潜力，但没有获得低成本天然气资源。基于煤炭船队年龄、管道接入和天然气供应安全的全球清查表明，电力部门的煤改气不太可能成为普遍的气候解决方案。
