College of Economics, Hangzhou Dianzi University, Hangzhou, People's Republic of China, 310018.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2023 Feb;30(6):16178-16194. doi: 10.1007/s11356-022-23201-7. Epub 2022 Sep 30.
Information and communication technology (ICT) has exerted a great impact on the socio-economic development; however, this development has come with some potential influence on climate change. The academics are divided over this issue; some argue that ICT has contributed to carbon reduction, while others consider that ICT has increased carbon dioxide (CO) emissions. Undoubtedly, the existing literature abounds in the relationship between ICT and CO emissions, but little attention has been paid to the spillover effect of ICT and CO emissions, especially in developing countries. Hence, with the panel data of 285 China's prefecture-level cities from 2004 to 2018, this study innovatively discusses the spatial and mechanism effects of ICT on CO emissions, further exploring the heterogeneous impact of ICT on CO emissions from multiple perspectives. The empirical results confirm the positive relationship between ICT and CO emissions and identify the spatial spillover effect in the relationship. Furthermore, notably, the intermediary effect of energy consumption on the impact of ICT on CO emissions is identified. Finally, due to the differences in the geographical position, population size, and urban agglomeration of prefecture-level cities in China, the impact of ICT on CO emissions varies in different cities. The findings not only contribute to advancing the existing literature but also have a significant and targeted policy guiding significance for the cities to maximize the favorable influences of ICT and promote the low-carbon transformation of the whole society.
信息技术（ICT）对社会经济发展产生了巨大影响；然而，这种发展也带来了一些气候变化方面的潜在影响。学术界对此存在分歧；一些人认为 ICT 有助于减少碳排放，而另一些人则认为 ICT 增加了二氧化碳（CO）排放。毫无疑问，现有文献中充斥着 ICT 和 CO 排放之间的关系，但很少有人关注 ICT 和 CO 排放的溢出效应，尤其是在发展中国家。因此，本研究利用 2004 年至 2018 年中国 285 个地级市的面板数据，创新性地探讨了 ICT 对 CO 排放的空间和机制效应，进一步从多个角度探讨了 ICT 对 CO 排放的异质影响。实证结果证实了 ICT 和 CO 排放之间的正相关关系，并确定了两者关系中的空间溢出效应。此外，还发现了能源消耗在 ICT 对 CO 排放影响中的中介效应。最后，由于中国地级市地理位置、人口规模和城市群的差异，ICT 对 CO 排放的影响在不同城市有所不同。这些发现不仅有助于推进现有文献，而且对城市具有重要和有针对性的政策指导意义，有助于城市最大限度地发挥 ICT 的有利影响，促进全社会的低碳转型。
