Song Min-Ju, Lee Hee-Yong
Department of International Economics and Business, Yeungnam University, 280 Daehak-Ro, Gyeongsan, 38541, Gyeongbuk, Korea.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2023 Oct;30(47):103776-103787. doi: 10.1007/s11356-023-29725-w. Epub 2023 Sep 11.
In the face of intensifying climate change-induced environmental problems, understanding the causal relationship between carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and socioeconomic factors is crucial for achieving sustainable development. This study investigates how the causal relationships between renewable energy, information and communication technology (ICT), logistics networks, economic growth, industrialization, and energy intensity impact sustainable development using a panel dataset drawn from 104 countries and covering 2006 to 2019. Methodologically, panel unit root, panel co-integration, and Granger causality tests are employed as robust econometric techniques. The results of the panel unit root and co-integration tests confirm the stationarity of the variables and reveal significant long-term relationships among them throughout the empirical analysis period. Notably, the panel FMOLS and DOLS estimates indicate a positive effect of RE and ICT on reducing CO2 emissions, whereas GDP and energy intensity have a negative impact on CO2 emissions reduction. Moreover, the pairwise Granger causality test findings indicate bidirectional causal relationships between RE and CO2, IND and CO2, ICT and RE, IND and RE, GDP and ICT, as well as IND and ICT. The study recommends providing policy support, including for technological development and innovation, towards establishing a system that fosters sustainable development.
面对气候变化引发的日益严重的环境问题，了解二氧化碳（CO₂）排放与社会经济因素之间的因果关系对于实现可持续发展至关重要。本研究使用来自104个国家、涵盖2006年至2019年的面板数据集，调查可再生能源、信息通信技术（ICT）、物流网络、经济增长、工业化和能源强度之间的因果关系如何影响可持续发展。在方法上，采用面板单位根检验、面板协整检验和格兰杰因果检验作为稳健的计量经济学技术。面板单位根检验和协整检验的结果证实了变量的平稳性，并在整个实证分析期内揭示了它们之间显著的长期关系。值得注意的是，面板完全修正最小二乘法（FMOLS）和动态最小二乘法（DOLS）估计表明，可再生能源和信息通信技术对减少CO₂排放有积极影响，而国内生产总值（GDP）和能源强度对减少CO₂排放有负面影响。此外，成对格兰杰因果检验结果表明，可再生能源与CO₂、工业化与CO₂、信息通信技术与可再生能源、工业化与可再生能源、GDP与信息通信技术以及工业化与信息通信技术之间存在双向因果关系。该研究建议提供政策支持，包括技术开发和创新方面的支持，以建立一个促进可持续发展的体系。
