Retrenchment of Wisconsin's Well Woman Program and changes in insurance coverage around the Affordable Care Act.

Since before the Affordable Care Act (ACA), states have partnered with the National Breast and Cervical Cancer Early Detection Program (NBCCEDP) to support access to cancer screening and treatment for uninsured/underinsured women. The Wisconsin Well Woman Program (WWWP) was one such program, supporting low-income women across the state. With ACA introduction, Wisconsin substantially downsized/restructured the WWWP, expecting the reduction in services to be offset by the rise in ACA-provided insurance coverage. This study assesses whether retrenchment in the WWWP following the ACA indeed prompted a differential rise in insurance coverage among the program's target population. We use a difference-in-differences (DID) design to contrast changes in county-level, target-population insurance rates, over 2008-2018, in Wisconsin counties previously most served by the WWWP vs those least served, adjusting for systematic differences across counties, including pre-policy trends. Pre-ACA (2011-2013), most-served counties had lower insurance rates by 2.5 percentage points (pp) than least-served counties; WWWP services likely compensated for some of that gap. In 2014-2015, along with WWWP's steep contraction, insurance rates rose sharply across all counties. Our primary DID analysis and event study suggest that WWWP contraction might have differentially driven more insurance take-up in most-served counties, by 1.88 pp [95 % Confidence Interval: 0.23,3.54], thus narrowing the pre-ACA gap. Sensitivity analyses suggest much smaller gains. Notwithstanding such potential insurance gains following program contraction, continued support for care navigation and coordination remain necessary to truly meet the needs of the vulnerable women previously served by the WWWP and similar programs across states.