College of Geography and Environmental Science, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou, 730070, Gansu, China.
College of Social Development and Public Administration, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou, 730070, Gansu, China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2023 Feb;30(7):17865-17887. doi: 10.1007/s11356-022-23200-8. Epub 2022 Oct 6.
Drought is the most widespread natural disaster in the world. How to monitor regional drought scientifically and accurately has become a hot topic for many scholars. In this paper, Geographically Integrated Dryness Index (GIDI) was integrated from an assortment source including Precipitation Condition Index (PCI), Temperature Condition Index (TCI), Soil Moisture Condition Index (SMCI), Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) (as the dependent variable) based on geographically weighted regression method. Besides, the comprehensive drought situation and changing trends in China from 2001 to 2019 were also examined. The results showed that (1) GIDI has excellent performance in monitoring medium- and long-term droughts and the monitoring results shows 2003, 2016, and 2019 were relatively wet years, while 2007, 2009, and 2011 were major drought years, and spring and March were the most frequent droughts season and month, respectively, and (2) except for the middle and upper reaches of the Yellow River and Northeastern China, which have a tendency to become wet, other places have a tendency to fluctuating dry. This study took advantage of simple and efficient methods to integrate existing indices to obtain a new index for monitoring a wider range of droughts, taking into account the physical mechanism of drought formation and the time scale of drought development, so it can scientifically evaluate the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of drought and changes.
干旱是世界上最广泛的自然灾害。如何科学准确地监测区域干旱已成为许多学者关注的热点。本文基于地理加权回归方法，从降水条件指数（PCI）、温度条件指数（TCI）、土壤湿度条件指数（SMCI）、植被条件指数（VCI）和标准化降水蒸散指数（SPEI）等多个来源综合集成了地理综合干燥指数（GIDI）（作为因变量）。此外，还考察了 2001 年至 2019 年期间中国的综合干旱情况和变化趋势。结果表明：（1）GIDI 在监测中长期干旱方面具有优异的性能，监测结果显示 2003 年、2016 年和 2019 年相对湿润，而 2007 年、2009 年和 2011 年为主要干旱年，春季和 3 月是最频繁的干旱季节和月份；（2）除黄河中下游和东北地区有趋于湿润的趋势外，其他地区有波动干燥的趋势。本研究利用简单有效的方法综合现有指数，获得了一个新的监测更广泛范围干旱的指数，考虑了干旱形成的物理机制和干旱发展的时间尺度，因此可以科学地评估干旱的时空分布特征和变化。
