Spatiotemporal heterogeneity and attributions of streamflow and baseflow changes across the headstreams of the Tarim River Basin, Northwest China.

Understanding spatiotemporal heterogeneity of streamflow and baseflow and revealing their changes contributed by climatic factors and human activities in the alpine region of inland river basin are critical for regional water management. However, the hydrology heterogeneity in the alpine region has remained unclear, which limits the scientific understanding of the interaction mechanism between the hydrological cycle and terrain, and further constrains the effective utilization of regional water resources in the water-shortage areas. In this study, the hydrological process and regimes for headstreams of Tarim River Basin (HTRB) during 1985-2011 were simulated by the Soil and Water Assessment Tool. We systematically characterized the spatial and temporal patterns of streamflow and baseflow through geostatistical and trend analyses, and subsequently investigated their heterogeneity responses to climate change and human activities at different sub-basins and elevation zones. Results show that the spatial distributions of streamflow and baseflow are highly related to terrain and river direction. Increased trends in precipitation enhanced with altitude, whereas decreased trends in potential evapotranspiration (PET) weakened with altitude, meanwhile, increased trends in streamflow and baseflow of HTRB are most pronounced in mid-altitude areas during 1985-2011. The climate elasticities of streamflow and baseflow are highly reliant on the altitudinal gradient. Increases in streamflow and baseflow in high-lying areas are more sensitive to precipitation variation, while they are more sensitive to PET change in low-lying areas. The magnitude and change rate with altitude bands of the precipitation has greater effects on streamflow and baseflow variations than those of PET. Furthermore, the percentage of sub-basins where climate changes dominate streamflow variation in each elevation band increases with height but decreases abruptly at elevations above 5000 m. The percentage of sub-basins where climate changes dominate baseflow variations gradually decreases in elevation bands above 3000 m. Our results indicate that climate change rather than human activities dominants the variation in streamflow and baseflow in most sub-basins and elevation bands.