Explaining Declining Educational Homogamy: The Role of Institutional Changes in Higher Education in Japan.

Research on educational assortative mating has devoted much attention to educational expansion but has been less focused on a concurrent trend of importance: growing differentiation among higher education institutions. In this study, I examine whether the bifurcation between high- and low-tier institutions in the context of high participation in tertiary education may clarify the mixed evidence on educational homogamy trends across countries. I apply log-linear and log-multiplicative models to analyze trends in educational assortative mating in Japan, which is characterized by a clear, widely acknowledged hierarchy of institutional selectivity. I find that the odds of homogamy are higher among graduates of selective universities than among graduates of nonselective universities. Further, assortative mating trends among graduates of selective and nonselective universities have diverged in recent years. This latter finding perhaps reflects that with the more rapid increase in the share of female students enrolled in less selective institutions, their opportunities to "marry up" have decreased. Results point to the importance of the growing heterogeneity of institutional characteristics, which was obscured in earlier studies, for understanding the impact of educational assortative mating on economic inequality.