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从多个角度探讨中国 CO 排放的关键领域及其时空演变的驱动因素。

Exploring key sectors of CO emissions and driving factors to spatiotemporal evolution in China from multiple perspectives.

机构信息

School of Economics and Management, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing, 100124, People's Republic of China.

The Center for Economic Research, Shandong University, 27 Shanda Nanlu, Ji'nan, Shandong, 250100, People's Republic of China.

出版信息

Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2023 Feb;30(7):18685-18700. doi: 10.1007/s11356-022-23247-7. Epub 2022 Oct 11.

DOI:10.1007/s11356-022-23247-7
PMID:36219286
Abstract

Identifying CO emission from different perspectives is necessary for developing the effective mitigation policies for China. Previous studies mainly focus on exploring important sectors from production and consumption sides, while the perspective of betweenness has been neglected. For narrowing the gap, a new perspective for accounting the critical transmission sectors is discussed. In this study, we calculated and compared the CO emissions of production-based, consumption-based, and betweenness-based from 2012 to 2017 based on the multi-regional input-output (MRIO) model. A structural decomposition analysis (SDA) is conducted to uncover the driving forces of CO emissions change from three accounting principles. The Findings are as follows: (1) the heavy industry sector (559.26 Mt) in Shandong and Jiangsu (471.97 Mt), Power in Guangdong (83.77 Mt) and Beijing (199.24 Mt), Equipment in Jiangsu (213.88 Mt) are identified as the key transmission sectors; (2) the emission intensity effect and the final demand product structure effect contribute to CO emission decrease in China, which are largely offset by the structure effect of final demand source and the final demand scale effect. Based on this, we propose some typical policy implications, such as paying close attention to the production efficiency of the key transmission sectors, optimizing the intermediate product input structure and increasing investment in the technology level, and then reducing the intensity of carbon emission.

摘要

从不同视角识别 CO 排放对于制定中国有效的减排政策至关重要。先前的研究主要集中在从生产和消费侧探索重要部门,而忽视了中间性视角。为了缩小差距,本文讨论了一种新的核算关键传输部门的视角。在本研究中,我们基于多区域投入产出(MRIO)模型,计算并比较了 2012 年至 2017 年基于生产、消费和中间性的 CO 排放。采用结构分解分析(SDA)揭示了三种核算原则下 CO 排放变化的驱动因素。研究结果如下:(1)山东和江苏的重工业部门(559.26 Mt)、广东的电力部门(83.77 Mt)和北京的电力部门(199.24 Mt)、江苏的设备部门(213.88 Mt)是关键的传输部门;(2)排放强度效应和最终需求产品结构效应有助于中国 CO 排放的减少,但最终需求来源结构效应和最终需求规模效应在很大程度上抵消了这一效应。基于此,我们提出了一些典型的政策建议,例如密切关注关键传输部门的生产效率、优化中间产品投入结构和增加技术水平投资,从而降低碳排放强度。

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