A multi-sectoral decomposition and decoupling analysis of carbon emissions in Guangdong province, China.

Quantifying the decoupling states of carbon emissions from a multi-sectoral and dual-perspective can guide more detailed emission reduction strategies. Based on the single-regional input-output (SRIO), Tapio decoupling analysis (TDA), and structural decomposition analysis (SDA), this study investigated the dynamic variation feature and decoupling state of multi-sectoral carbon emissions, and revealed their driving factors of consumption-based emissions in Guangdong province from 2002 to 2017. The main discovery can be summarized as follows from results analysis. Firstly, electricity production sector and construction sector were the largest direct and embodied carbon emission sources, and capital formation was the most important factor with the contribution of approximately 100 % that led to embodied carbon emissions of construction. For most of the manufacturing and service sectors, the embodied carbon emissions caused by international export exceed 50 %. Secondly, the consumption structure, consumption per capita, and population effect promoted the embodied emissions during 2002-2012, while the emission intensity effect was the greatest offsetting factor for all sectors. Consumption structure effect was becoming a major driver to the increase of embodied carbon emissions for construction. Thirdly, agriculture, mining, energy transformation, and service sector showed the unsatisfactory decoupling relationship between direct carbon emissions and economic output. According to the decoupling states, the decoupling relationships in some secondary industries were overestimated under the situation of only considering direct carbon emissions. The obtained results and policy implications are expected to provide holistic reference for policymakers to promote the short-term carbon peak and long-term carbon neutrality of Guangdong province from the sectoral perspective.