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槲寄生在欧洲的未来将由温度和寄主的可利用性来决定。

The future of Viscum album L. in Europe will be shaped by temperature and host availability.

机构信息

Institute of Dendrology, Polish Academy of Sciences, Parkowa 5, 62-035, Kórnik, Poland.

Institute of Forest Sciences, Warsaw University of Life Sciences - SGGW, ul. Nowoursynowska 159, 02-776, Warszawa, Poland.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2022 Oct 12;12(1):17072. doi: 10.1038/s41598-022-21532-6.

Abstract

Viscum album L. is a plant of great importance due to its influence on the host trees and, by extension, entire ecosystems. The species is also significant to humans-on the one hand, because of its use in medicine, and on the other, because of the growing threat it poses to the stability of conifer stands. Therefore, it is important to recognize the future range of three mistletoe subspecies (Viscum album subsp. album, V. album subsp. austriacum, and V. album subsp. abietis). Modelling of the potential range of these subspecies was performed using MAXENT software. Locations were collected from literature and databases. A total number of 3335 stands were used. Bioclimatic data for the current conditions and three future scenarios (SSP 1.26, SSP 3.70, SSP 5.85) were downloaded from the CHELSA database. The results confirmed that the temperature is the key variable on the potential range of the analysed subspecies. V. album subsp. abietis is withdrawing from its range according to all scenarios. In the case of V. album subsp. austriacum, a slight range shift is visible. Only the V. album subsp. album will expand non-directionally. The reason is most likely a very large number of host species and greater genetic variability compared to the subspecies found on conifers.

摘要

槲寄生是一种非常重要的植物,因为它会对宿主树木产生影响,进而影响整个生态系统。对人类来说,这种植物也很重要——一方面是因为它在医学上的用途,另一方面是因为它对针叶林的稳定性构成了日益严重的威胁。因此,认识三种槲寄生亚种(槲寄生亚种、槲寄生亚种和槲寄生亚种)的未来分布范围很重要。使用 MAXENT 软件对这些亚种的潜在分布范围进行了建模。位置信息是从文献和数据库中收集的。总共使用了 3335 个林分。当前条件和三个未来情景(SSP1.26、SSP3.70、SSP5.85)的生物气候数据从 CHELSA 数据库下载。结果证实,温度是分析亚种潜在分布范围的关键变量。根据所有情景,槲寄生亚种正在从其分布范围内撤出。对于槲寄生亚种,可见范围略有转移。只有槲寄生亚种会非定向扩张。原因很可能是宿主物种的数量非常多,而且与在针叶树上发现的亚种相比,遗传变异性更大。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7761/9556578/ee48b0795d9e/41598_2022_21532_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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