Baranowska Marlena, Łukowski Adrian, Korzeniewicz Robert, Kowalkowski Wojciech, Dylewski Łukasz
Faculty of Forestry and Wood Technology, Wojska Polskiego 71A, 60-637, Poznań, Poland.
Faculty of Veterinary Medicine and Animal Science, Poznań University of Life Sciences, Wojska Polskiego 71C, 60-637, Poznań, Poland.
Sci Rep. 2025 May 29;15(1):18932. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-03631-2.
Climate change significantly influences the distribution of parasitic species, posing threats to ecosystems and economies. This study examines the potential range expansion of Loranthus europaeus, a parasitic plant impacting European forestry. We assessed the impact of predicted climate change for 2041-2060 and 2061-2080 using MaxEnt modeling based on current occurrence data of L. europaeus, and the main host plant genus oak Quercus, as well as bioclimatic variables. Our model demonstrated high predictive accuracy (AUC = 0.92). The most important variables for Europe range were range of Quercus genus. Key environmental factors included isothermality (bio3) and mean temperature of wettest quarter (bio8). Under SSP126 and SSP245 scenarios, our results predict significant range expansions into northern and eastern Europe, with increases of 43.5% and 53.9% by 2041-2060. Conversely, southern Europe may see contractions of 16.4-20.6%. Projections for 2061-2080 indicate further expansions up to 65.8% in northern Europe, alongside contractions up to 29.8% in southern regions, including Turkey and Greece.These shifts highlight the influence of climate change on L. europaeus distribution and underscore the need for adaptive management strategies to mitigate potential ecological and economic impacts.
气候变化显著影响寄生物种的分布，对生态系统和经济构成威胁。本研究考察了对欧洲林业有影响的寄生植物欧洲桑寄生（Loranthus europaeus）潜在的分布范围扩张情况。我们基于欧洲桑寄生和主要寄主植物属栎属（Quercus）的当前出现数据以及生物气候变量，使用最大熵模型（MaxEnt）评估了2041 - 2060年和2061 - 2080年预测气候变化的影响。我们的模型显示出较高的预测准确性（AUC = 0.92）。对欧洲分布范围最重要的变量是栎属的分布范围。关键环境因素包括等温性（bio3）和最湿润季度的平均温度（bio8）。在SSP126和SSP245情景下，我们的结果预测其分布范围将大幅向北欧和东欧扩张，到2041 - 2060年分别增加43.5%和53.9%。相反，南欧可能会出现16.4% - 20.6%的收缩。2061 - 2080年的预测表明，北欧将进一步扩张达65.8%，而包括土耳其和希腊在内的南部地区将收缩达29.8%。这些变化凸显了气候变化对欧洲桑寄生分布的影响，并强调需要采取适应性管理策略来减轻潜在的生态和经济影响。
