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基于马尔可夫链的矿井通风系统可靠性评估

Mine ventilation system reliability evaluation based on a Markov chain.

机构信息

College of Safety Science and Engineering, Liaoning Technical University, Huludao, 125105, Liaoning, China.

Key Laboratory of Mine Thermo-Motive Disaster and Prevention, Ministry of Education, Huludao, 125105, Liaoning, China.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2022 Oct 12;12(1):17115. doi: 10.1038/s41598-022-22098-z.

Abstract

Mine ventilation systems play a key role in creating and sustaining a healthy and safe working environment within the mine, and as such, should always be maintained at optimal performance levels. This paper establishes a model based on Markov chain that can quickly evaluate the reliability of the ventilation system. Firstly, the operation status of the ventilation system is divided into normal, risk and failure. Then, according to the failure rate and repair rate of the system, the operation state of the system under the specified total operation time T and time interval Δt is simulated based on Monte Carlo method, the Markov chain state transfer probability matrix of the system can be obtained. Combined with the current operation state of the system, the reliability indexes such as the system operation state transfer probability and the steady state probability in the future can be quickly analyzed to realize the rapid evaluation of the operation reliability of the ventilation system. Finally, the model is used to evaluate the reliability of XQ mine ventilation system, which shows the effectiveness of the model. This research provides theoretical reference and technical support for mine safety production.

摘要

矿井通风系统在创造和维持矿井内健康安全的工作环境方面起着关键作用,因此应始终保持在最佳性能水平。本文建立了一个基于马尔可夫链的模型,可以快速评估通风系统的可靠性。首先,将通风系统的运行状态分为正常、风险和故障三种状态。然后,根据系统的故障率和修复率,采用蒙特卡罗方法模拟在指定总运行时间 T 和时间间隔Δt 下系统的运行状态,得到系统的马尔可夫链状态转移概率矩阵。结合系统当前的运行状态,快速分析系统运行状态转移概率和未来稳态概率等可靠性指标,实现通风系统运行可靠性的快速评估。最后,将该模型应用于 XQ 矿通风系统的可靠性评估,验证了模型的有效性。本研究为矿山安全生产提供了理论参考和技术支持。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/88be/9556560/1859ecb347a7/41598_2022_22098_Fig6_HTML.jpg

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