Department of Rheumatology and Immunology, Tongji Hospital, School of Medicine, Tongji University, No. 389 Xincun Road, Shanghai, 200065, China.
Department of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Tongji Hospital, School of Medicine, Tongji University, No. 389 Xincun Road, Shanghai, 200065, China.
Clin Exp Med. 2023 Aug;23(4):1331-1343. doi: 10.1007/s10238-022-00915-z. Epub 2022 Oct 16.
To identify potential predictors by assessing adverse outcomes in ANCA-associated vasculitis (AAV) patients. Eighty-nine untreated AAV patients were followed up to January 31, 2022, death, or loss of follow-up. Clinical characteristics, laboratory tests, treatment, and progress were collected, and disease activity was evaluated via Birmingham Vasculitis Activity Score (BVAS). We determined risk factors of high-risk events, defined as developing tumors, renal replacement therapy (RRT), and death. Patients and renal survivals were computed by the Kaplan-Meier curve analysis. Cox regression analysis was performed for assessing variables for predicting death. During 267 person-years follow-up, 46 patients occurred high-risk events, including 20 patients receiving RRT, 12 patients developing tumors, and 29 patients who died mostly from organ failure and infection. Decreased estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) (P < 0.001) and complement 3 levels (P = 0.019) were associated with high-risk events. Patients with lower serum potassium tended to develop tumors (P = 0.033); with higher BVAS (HR = 1.290, 95%CI 1.075-1.549, P = 0.006) and lower eGFR (HR = 0.782, 95%CI 0.680-0.901, P = 0.001) were more likely to undergo RRT. Patients with cardio and renal involvement exhibited a lower frequency of renal survival and all-cause mortality. Through multivariate COX analysis, age (HR = 1.016, 95%CI 1.016-1.105, P = 0.006) and eGFR (HR = 0.982, 95%CI 0.968-0.997, P = 0.018) predicted death in AAV, separately. The BVAS and eGFR could be a great prognosticator for RRT, while age and eGFR can independently predict the death. Serum potassium level and immunoglobulins should be focused on their predictor value in development of cancer and renal outcomes in AAV patients.
为了通过评估抗中性粒细胞胞浆抗体(ANCA)相关性血管炎(AAV)患者的不良结局来确定潜在的预测因素。对 89 例未经治疗的 AAV 患者进行了随访,直至 2022 年 1 月 31 日死亡、接受肾替代治疗(RRT)或失访。收集了临床特征、实验室检查、治疗和进展情况,并通过伯明翰血管炎活动评分(BVAS)评估了疾病活动度。我们确定了高危事件的危险因素,高危事件定义为发生肿瘤、RRT 和死亡。通过 Kaplan-Meier 曲线分析计算患者和肾脏存活率。采用 Cox 回归分析评估预测死亡的变量。在 267 人年的随访期间,46 例患者发生了高危事件,其中 20 例接受了 RRT,12 例发生了肿瘤,29 例患者死亡主要是由于器官衰竭和感染。估计肾小球滤过率(eGFR)降低(P<0.001)和补体 3 水平降低(P=0.019)与高危事件相关。血清钾水平较低的患者倾向于发生肿瘤(P=0.033);BVAS 较高(HR=1.290,95%CI 1.075-1.549,P=0.006)和 eGFR 较低(HR=0.782,95%CI 0.680-0.901,P=0.001)的患者更有可能接受 RRT。有心脏和肾脏受累的患者肾脏存活率和全因死亡率较低。通过多变量 COX 分析,年龄(HR=1.016,95%CI 1.016-1.105,P=0.006)和 eGFR(HR=0.982,95%CI 0.968-0.997,P=0.018)分别可预测 AAV 患者的死亡。BVAS 和 eGFR 可作为 RRT 的重要预后指标,而年龄和 eGFR 可独立预测死亡。血清钾水平和免疫球蛋白应关注其在 AAV 患者发生癌症和肾脏结局中的预测价值。