College of Business, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, Shanghai, 200433, China.
Institute of Finance and Economics, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, Shanghai, 200433, China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2023 Feb;30(8):21453-21467. doi: 10.1007/s11356-022-23652-y. Epub 2022 Oct 21.
A major environmental concern today is the carbon emissions caused by rapid urbanization. As the largest developing country and carbon emitter, China has controlled the urban growth boundary (UGB) as a quasi-experimental policy to achieve carbon neutrality. Therefore, this paper employs the difference in differences (DID) method, for panel data from 2000 to 2019 in China to shed light on the effects on carbon emissions. Results show that the UGB can reduce carbon emissions considerably. After the implementation of the policy, the carbon emissions of the pilot cities decreased by 23.91%. Additionally, a series of robustness tests such as PSM-DID and Placebo tests support the conclusions. Moreover, the greater influence is reflected in the scope of the whole city and the intensity of the permanent plan. The UGB is more susceptible to cities in the central and western areas and cities with weak environmental regulations. Through the mechanism tests, the emission reduction effect of the UGB will be greater in cities with larger vegetation coverage and advanced industry structure. Furthermore, our analysis suggests the UGB needs to be adequately promoted as a policy to achieve carbon neutrality in cities. To make the policy more effective, vegetation cover and industrial structure ought to be taken into consideration.
当前，一个主要的环境问题是城市化进程所带来的碳排放。中国作为最大的发展中国家和碳排放国，通过控制城市增长边界（UGB）这一准实验政策来实现碳中和。因此，本文采用 2000 年至 2019 年中国的面板数据，使用双重差分法（DID）来检验该政策对碳排放的影响。结果表明，UGB 可以显著减少碳排放。政策实施后，试点城市的碳排放量减少了 23.91%。此外，一系列稳健性检验，如 PSM-DID 和安慰剂检验，支持了这一结论。此外，该政策的影响在整个城市范围和永久规划强度上更为显著。UGB 对中西部地区和环境监管较弱的城市的影响更大。通过机制检验，我们发现 UGB 在植被覆盖率较大和产业结构先进的城市的减排效果更大。此外，我们的分析表明，UGB 作为实现城市碳中和的政策需要得到充分推广。为了使政策更加有效，应该考虑植被覆盖和产业结构。
