Department of Public Economics, DIW Berlin, Mohrenstr. 58, 10117, Berlin, Germany.
Berlin School of Economics, Berlin, Germany.
Eur J Health Econ. 2023 Sep;24(7):1101-1120. doi: 10.1007/s10198-022-01535-w. Epub 2022 Oct 23.
In this paper, we use unique health record data that cover outpatient care and the associated costs to quantify the health care costs of a sizable increase in the retirement age in Germany. For the identification, we exploit a sizable cohort-specific pension reform which abolished an early retirement program for all women born after 1951. Our results show that health care costs significantly increase by about 2.9% in the age group directly affected by the increase in the retirement age (women aged 60-62). We further show that the cost increase is mainly driven by the following specialist groups: Ophthalmologists, general practitioners (GPs), neurology, orthopedics, and radiology. While the effects are significant and meaningful on the individual level, we show that the increase in health care costs is modest relative to the positive fiscal effects of the pension reform. Specifically, we estimate an aggregate increase in the health costs of about 7.7 million euro for women born in 1952 aged 60-62 which amounts to less than 2% of the overall positive fiscal effects of the pension reform.
在本文中，我们使用涵盖门诊护理和相关费用的独特健康记录数据，量化了德国退休年龄大幅提高所带来的医疗保健成本。为了进行识别，我们利用了一项针对特定人群的大规模养老金改革，该改革取消了所有 1951 年后出生女性的提前退休计划。我们的研究结果表明，在直接受退休年龄增加影响的年龄组（60-62 岁的女性）中，医疗保健成本显著增加了约 2.9%。我们进一步表明，成本增加主要由以下专科群体驱动：眼科医生、全科医生（GP）、神经科、骨科和放射科。虽然这些影响在个体层面上是显著且有意义的，但我们表明，与养老金改革的积极财政影响相比，医疗成本的增加是适度的。具体而言，我们估计 1952 年出生的 60-62 岁女性的医疗费用总增加约为 770 万欧元，不到养老金改革总体积极财政影响的 2%。
