Center for Quantitative Economics, Jilin University, Changchun 130012, China.
School of Economics and Management, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu 241000, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2022 Oct 14;19(20):13263. doi: 10.3390/ijerph192013263.
Epidemics represent a threat to human life and economy. Meanwhile, medical and non-medical approaches to fight against them may result in additional economic shocks. In this paper, we examine the economic impact of the 2003 SARS outbreak in China and associated government policies. Although the epidemic caused a substantial economic loss in the short term, the interventions for medical purposes positively impacted the economy of the severely affected regions through the increase in investments such as other fiscal stimuli. There is strong and robust evidence suggesting that the SARS epidemic and its associated countermeasure policies boosted local output by around 4% and industrial production by around 5%. The positive growth was mainly derived from the increase in investment and government activity, especially government expenditure. Besides that, lagged impacts were particularly pronounced to the economic system and lasted for longer even than the epidemic period in a biological sense. We attribute this to the relatively aggressive stance of policymakers in the face of the epidemic situation.
传染病对人类生命和经济构成威胁。同时,对抗传染病的医疗和非医疗方法可能会导致额外的经济冲击。在本文中,我们考察了 2003 年中国 SARS 疫情爆发及其相关政府政策对经济的影响。尽管疫情在短期内造成了巨大的经济损失,但出于医疗目的的干预措施通过增加投资等其他财政刺激措施,对受疫情严重影响地区的经济产生了积极影响。有强有力的证据表明,非典疫情及其相关对策政策使当地产出增长了约 4%,工业生产增长了约 5%。这种积极增长主要源于投资和政府活动的增加,特别是政府支出的增加。除此之外,滞后效应在经济系统中表现得尤为明显,其持续时间甚至比疫情在生物学意义上的持续时间还要长。我们将这归因于决策者在面对疫情时采取了相对激进的立场。
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