Keogh-Brown Marcus Richard, Smith Richard David
Health Policy Unit, Department of Public Health and Policy, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London, UK.
Health Policy. 2008 Oct;88(1):110-20. doi: 10.1016/j.healthpol.2008.03.003. Epub 2008 Apr 23.
To perform a retrospective analysis of the macro-economic impact of the 2003 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) outbreak.
As several years have now passed, it is possible to interrogate national statistics that have become available since the outbreak to provide a more accurate estimate of the actual macro-economic impact of SARS. National statistics were examined for anomalies that corresponded to the timing of the SARS outbreak and, where possible, the size of any gain or loss found estimated.
Estimates and models produced at the time of the outbreak suggested that SARS could have a catastrophic effect on the global economy. Our analysis suggests that the scale of the SARS impact on affected economies was far smaller than suggested by contemporary media reports and model estimates.
This exercise holds important lessons for estimating the economic impact of future outbreaks -- such as pandemic influenza -- and measures to control or prevent them. We suggest that further work is needed to develop a more comprehensive macro-economic model able to more accurately estimate the relative cost and effect of a global response to outbreaks of international concern. The implications of our findings are discussed in the light of a prospective influenza pandemic.
对2003年严重急性呼吸综合征（SARS）疫情的宏观经济影响进行回顾性分析。
由于现在已经过去了数年，因此可以查阅自疫情爆发以来可获取的国家统计数据，以便更准确地估计SARS实际的宏观经济影响。对国家统计数据进行审查，查找与SARS疫情爆发时间相符的异常情况，并在可能的情况下，估算所发现的任何收益或损失的规模。
疫情爆发时所做出的估计和模型表明，SARS可能会对全球经济产生灾难性影响。我们的分析表明，SARS对受影响经济体的影响规模远小于当时媒体报道和模型估计所显示的情况。
这项工作为估计未来疫情（如大流行性流感）的经济影响以及控制或预防这些疫情的措施提供了重要经验教训。我们建议需要开展进一步工作，以开发一个更全面的宏观经济模型，能够更准确地估计全球应对国际关注疫情的相对成本和效果。根据未来可能发生的流感大流行对我们的研究结果的影响进行了讨论。
