Rimm A A, Weinstein A B, Piering W, Lemann J, Shelp W D, Kauffman H M, Hussey J L, Giefer E E
Arch Intern Med. 1978 Dec;138(12):1783-6.
Treatment modalities of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) patients include in-center dialysis, home dialysis, and kidney transplant. We present a model to account for all aspects of modality use to aid in planning regional facilities. Five years of data for 979 patients on dialysis in Wisconsin between 1970 and 1975 are used. The model shows movement (transit probabilities) from one modality to another, eg, transition from in-center dialysis to transplantation, and data were used to derive all transitional probabilities characterizing patient movement from one modality to another. Model and probabilities were used to predict number of patients in each modality in 1976, and the model was used to predict number of patients in each treatment modality through 1990. These figures may be used for planning regional facilities. Extrapolation of this model and derived probabilities for nationwide projections may be possible.
终末期肾病（ESRD）患者的治疗方式包括中心透析、家庭透析和肾移植。我们提出了一个模型，用于考虑治疗方式使用的各个方面，以协助规划区域设施。使用了1970年至1975年间威斯康星州979名透析患者的五年数据。该模型显示了从一种治疗方式到另一种治疗方式的转移（转移概率），例如从中心透析到移植的转变，并且使用数据得出了表征患者从一种治疗方式转移到另一种治疗方式的所有转移概率。模型和概率被用于预测1976年每种治疗方式的患者数量，并且该模型被用于预测到1990年每种治疗方式的患者数量。这些数字可用于规划区域设施。对该模型和得出的概率进行外推以进行全国范围的预测可能是可行的。
