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新冠疫情在各国是否已趋同？

Has the COVID-19 pandemic converged across countries?

作者信息

Awaworyi Churchill Sefa, Inekwe John, Ivanovski Kris

机构信息

School of Economics, Finance and Marketing, RMIT University, Melbourne, VIC Australia.

PIIRS, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ USA.

出版信息

Empir Econ. 2023;64(5):2027-2052. doi: 10.1007/s00181-022-02319-0. Epub 2022 Oct 21.

DOI:10.1007/s00181-022-02319-0
PMID:36311971
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9589646/
Abstract

The outbreak of COVID-19 has induced economic and financial disruptions to global economies, consistent with those experienced during previous episodes of economic or financial crises. This study offers a critical perspective into the spread of the virus by investigating the convergence patterns of COVID-19 across 155 countries from March 2020 to August 2021. The club clustering algorithm is used to verify the convergence patterns of infection and death rates in these countries. The findings show that full panel convergence cannot be achieved indicating the presence of sub-convergent clusters. Cluster formation for death rates includes the Americas, Africa, the Middle East, and Asia, among others. To understand the factors driving these results, we analyse the determinants of the convergence process of COVID-19. The probability of belonging to a cluster with higher death intensity increases with being above the age of 65, poverty, and for female smokers while handwashing shows beneficial effect on case intensity.

摘要

新冠疫情给全球经济带来了经济和金融混乱，这与以往经济或金融危机期间所经历的情况一致。本研究通过调查2020年3月至2021年8月期间155个国家的新冠疫情趋同模式，对病毒传播提供了批判性视角。俱乐部聚类算法用于验证这些国家感染率和死亡率的趋同模式。研究结果表明，无法实现完全的面板趋同，这表明存在次趋同集群。死亡率的集群形成包括美洲、非洲、中东和亚洲等地区。为了理解驱动这些结果的因素，我们分析了新冠疫情趋同过程的决定因素。年龄在65岁以上、贫困以及女性吸烟者属于死亡强度较高集群的概率增加，而洗手对病例强度有有益影响。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/c3c6/9589646/1e568b748404/181_2022_2319_Fig9_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/c3c6/9589646/46766d1a20ef/181_2022_2319_Fig1_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/c3c6/9589646/576f8d63bbec/181_2022_2319_Fig2_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/c3c6/9589646/34162814de87/181_2022_2319_Fig3_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/c3c6/9589646/a213cd0aa8d4/181_2022_2319_Fig4_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/c3c6/9589646/2d4629a2a1b4/181_2022_2319_Fig5_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/c3c6/9589646/6c17173e8adc/181_2022_2319_Fig6_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/c3c6/9589646/0b3f8d8a4a0d/181_2022_2319_Fig7_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/c3c6/9589646/829286659bcd/181_2022_2319_Fig8_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/c3c6/9589646/1e568b748404/181_2022_2319_Fig9_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/c3c6/9589646/46766d1a20ef/181_2022_2319_Fig1_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/c3c6/9589646/576f8d63bbec/181_2022_2319_Fig2_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/c3c6/9589646/34162814de87/181_2022_2319_Fig3_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/c3c6/9589646/a213cd0aa8d4/181_2022_2319_Fig4_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/c3c6/9589646/2d4629a2a1b4/181_2022_2319_Fig5_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/c3c6/9589646/6c17173e8adc/181_2022_2319_Fig6_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/c3c6/9589646/0b3f8d8a4a0d/181_2022_2319_Fig7_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/c3c6/9589646/829286659bcd/181_2022_2319_Fig8_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/c3c6/9589646/1e568b748404/181_2022_2319_Fig9_HTML.jpg

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