Department of Economics, MEF University, Ayazaga Cad. No:4 Maslak, 34396, Sariyer, Istanbul, Turkey; Medical School, University of Michigan, Department of Internal Medicine, 1500 East Medical Center Drive, Ann Arbor, MI, 48109, United States; John. D. Dingell VA Medical Center, 4646 John R Street, Detroit, MI, 48201, United States.
Health Policy. 2021 Feb;125(2):148-154. doi: 10.1016/j.healthpol.2020.10.003. Epub 2020 Oct 13.
Since March 2020, many countries around the world have been experiencing a large outbreak of a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV). Because there is a higher rate of contact between humans in cities with higher population weighted densities, Covid-19 spreads faster in these areas. In this study, we examined the relationship between population weighted density and the spread of Covid-19. Using data from Turkey, we calculated the elasticity of Covid-19 spread with respect to population weighted density to be 0.67 after controlling for other factors. In addition to the density, the proportion of people over 65, the per capita GDP, and the number of total health care workers in each city positively contributed to the case numbers, while education level and temperature had a negative effect. We suggested a policy measure on how to transfer health care workers from different areas to the areas with a possibility of wide spread.
自 2020 年 3 月以来，世界上许多国家都经历了一场新型冠状病毒（2019-nCoV）的大规模爆发。由于城市人口密度较高，人与人之间的接触率更高，因此这些地区的新冠病毒传播速度更快。在这项研究中，我们研究了人口加权密度与新冠病毒传播之间的关系。我们使用来自土耳其的数据，在控制了其他因素后，计算出新冠病毒传播对人口加权密度的弹性为 0.67。除了人口密度，65 岁以上人口比例、人均国内生产总值和每个城市的医疗保健工作者总数也对病例数量有积极贡献，而教育水平和温度则有负面影响。我们提出了一项政策措施，即如何将医疗保健工作者从不同地区转移到可能广泛传播的地区。
