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空气污染和痴呆之间是否存在偶然关系?

Is there a casual relation between air pollution and dementia?

机构信息

Department of sociology, Xian Jiaotong University, Beilin street, Xian, 86-710000, Shannxi, China.

出版信息

Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2023 Feb;30(9):23248-23262. doi: 10.1007/s11356-022-23226-y. Epub 2022 Nov 2.

Abstract

Dementia has been cited as a critical public health risk in the contemporary world, while few empirical researchers try to reveal the casual relationship between air pollutant concentrations (APCs) and dementia, especially given the increasing prevalence of air pollution on a global scale. Accordingly, this paper tries to infer the causal relationship between APCs and dementia. The 59,605 valid data was compiled through a combination of the statistic from the China Family Panel Study, China Environmental Statistics Yearbook, World Meteorological Association and China National Bureau of Statistics. The RD design of this study utilizes the discontinuous variation in APCs and dementia as one crosses the Huai River boundary, which is an arbitrary heating policy that causes the significant difference in APCs between the north and south of China. We used stata17.0 to analyze the data. The results of the RD regression indicated that a 100 μ g/m rise in APCs led to an increase of 42.4% in the hazard ratio of suffering dementia (Coeff=-0.58, SD= 0.23, P < 0.05). Meanwhile, heterogeneous models revealed that the hazard ratio of suffering dementia by APCs was more significant in the older compared to younger (coeff= 1.35 vs coeff= 1.55, P < 0.05), male compared to female (coeff= 1.62 vs coeff= 0.71, P < 0.05), smoking compared to non-smoke (coeff= 2.12 vs coeff= 0.93, P < 0.05), and thin groups compared to medium and obesity (coeff= 2.05 vs coeff= 1.22, coeff= 1.28, P < 0.05). In addition, the O3 and SO2 were the air pollutants with the highest (coeff= 1.54, P < 0.05) and lowest effects (coeff= 0.81, P < 0.05) on the hazard ratio of suffering dementia among the five APCs, respectively. And the robustness of the results was ensured by changing the RD bandwidth, polynomial order. The results indicated that APCs significantly induced the hazard ratio of suffering dementia of Chinese residents, which provides empirical evidence in supporting the Chinese government to invest more in combating air pollution and ensure the public health of Chinese residents.

摘要

痴呆症已被认为是当代世界的重大公共卫生风险之一,尽管很少有实证研究人员试图揭示空气污染浓度(APCs)与痴呆症之间的因果关系,尤其是考虑到在全球范围内,空气污染的患病率不断上升。因此,本文试图推断 APCs 与痴呆症之间的因果关系。通过结合中国家庭追踪调查的统计数据、中国环境统计年鉴、世界气象组织和中国国家统计局的数据,编制了 59605 份有效数据。本研究采用 RD 设计,利用 APCs 和痴呆症在跨越淮河边界时的不连续变化,这是一种任意的供暖政策,导致中国南北 APCs 存在显著差异。我们使用 stata17.0 对数据进行分析。RD 回归的结果表明,APCs 每增加 100μg/m,患痴呆症的风险比就会增加 42.4%(Coeff=-0.58,SD=0.23,P<0.05)。此外,异质模型表明,与年轻人相比,老年人(coeff=1.35 比 coeff=1.55,P<0.05)、男性(coeff=1.62 比 coeff=0.71,P<0.05)、吸烟者(coeff=2.12 比 coeff=0.93,P<0.05)和消瘦人群(coeff=2.05 比 coeff=1.22,coeff=1.28,P<0.05)患痴呆症的风险比更高。此外,O3 和 SO2 是对患痴呆症风险比影响最大(coeff=1.54,P<0.05)和最小(coeff=0.81,P<0.05)的空气污染物。并且通过改变 RD 带宽和多项式阶数,确保了结果的稳健性。结果表明,APCs 显著增加了中国居民患痴呆症的风险比,为中国政府投入更多资金防治空气污染、保障中国居民公共健康提供了经验证据。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/88f5/9628405/eb8b2da92464/11356_2022_23226_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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