Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science, School of Biological Sciences, University of Queensland, St. Lucia, QLD 4072, Australia; Institute of Biodiversity, Friedrich Schiller University Jena, Dornburger Straße 159, 07743 Jena, Germany; Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ), Department of Ecosystem Services, Permoserstraße 15, 04318 Leipzig, Germany; German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Puschstraße 4, 04103 Leipzig, Germany.
Sci Total Environ. 2023 Feb 1;858(Pt 2):159989. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.159989. Epub 2022 Nov 5.
Climate change is a major threat impacting insects globally, yet the impact on tropical insects is largely unknown. Here, I assessed the climatic vulnerability of Bangladeshi butterflies (242 species). About 42 % of species could experience range contraction, and the impact could be significantly more severe among threatened species. Depending on Socio-Economic Pathways (ssps), the future climatic condition could be unsuitable for 2 (ssp126) - 34 % (ssp585) species. The mean elevation of the suitable habitat could increase by 238 %, and the situation could be more severe for the threatened butterflies. Further, 54 % of the realised niche of butterflies could be altered. Although there might be no significant association between the shift in habitat suitability along the elevational gradient, migratory species could experience a more significant shift than non-migrants. Overall, climate change could have a severe impact on Bangladeshi butterflies. To mitigate insect decline globally and meet the Post 2020 Biodiversity Framework targets, immediate detection of climate change impact on tropical insects and developing effective conservation strategies is essential.
气候变化是一个全球性的重大威胁，影响着昆虫的生存，但热带昆虫所受的影响在很大程度上尚未可知。在这里，我评估了孟加拉国蝴蝶（242 种）的气候脆弱性。大约 42%的物种可能会经历栖息地范围缩小，如果考虑受威胁物种，其影响可能会更加严重。根据社会经济途径（ssp），未来的气候条件可能不适宜 2 种（ssp126）-34 种（ssp585）物种生存。适宜栖息地的平均海拔可能会升高 238%，受威胁的蝴蝶处境可能会更加艰难。此外，蝴蝶实际生态位的 54%可能会发生改变。虽然在海拔梯度上，栖息地适宜性的变化可能没有显著的关联，但迁徙物种可能比非迁徙物种经历更显著的变化。总的来说，气候变化可能会对孟加拉国的蝴蝶产生严重影响。为了减少全球昆虫的减少，实现 2020 年后生物多样性框架目标，必须立即检测气候变化对热带昆虫的影响，并制定有效的保护策略。
