Behzadi Saeed, Ghanbarian Gholamabbas, Khosravi Rasool, Safaeian Roja, Pourghasemi Hamid Reza
Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Engineering, School of Agriculture Shiraz University Shiraz Iran.
Department of Soil Science, School of Agriculture Shiraz University Shiraz Iran.
Ecol Evol. 2025 May 26;15(5):e71406. doi: 10.1002/ece3.71406. eCollection 2025 May.
Climate change, a global threat of utmost significance, has the potential to trigger shifts in biodiversity distribution and the emergence of novel ecological communities. While considerable research has focused on predicting the impacts of climate change on the range shift of species, a critical yet often overlooked aspect is the role of changing climate on plants in hot, arid, and poorly known ecosystems. We employed an ensemble species distribution modeling framework to investigate how climate change might affect the spatial range of two significant indicator species, and , within the hot and arid Khalijo-Omanian ecosystem of Iran. We ran the models for the current species distribution using climatic variables and then projected the models for two future periods (2041-2070 and 2071-2100) under different climate scenarios. These findings suggest that both species respond differently to climate change under different climatic scenarios. Some regions may undergo range expansion, whereas others may experience range contraction due to shifting environmental conditions. Overall, both species are projected to shift their range towards higher latitudes as climatic conditions evolve. Conservation and management measures, including the identification of priority areas, are crucial for protecting these species. The conclusions of this study are valuable to biodiversity conservation authorities, local stakeholders, and individuals dedicated to preserving habitats.
气候变化是一个具有极其重大意义的全球威胁，它有可能引发生物多样性分布的变化以及新型生态群落的出现。虽然大量研究集中在预测气候变化对物种分布范围变化的影响，但一个关键却常常被忽视的方面是气候变化对炎热、干旱且鲜为人知的生态系统中的植物的作用。我们采用了一个综合物种分布建模框架，来研究气候变化如何可能影响伊朗炎热干旱的哈利乔 - 阿曼生态系统中两个重要指示物种[物种名称缺失]的空间分布范围。我们使用气候变量运行当前物种分布的模型，然后在不同气候情景下预测两个未来时期（2041 - 2070年和2071 - 2100年）的模型。这些结果表明，在不同气候情景下，这两个物种对气候变化的反应不同。由于环境条件的变化，一些地区可能会经历分布范围的扩大，而其他地区可能会经历分布范围的收缩。总体而言，随着气候条件的演变，预计这两个物种的分布范围都会向更高纬度转移。包括确定优先区域在内的保护和管理措施对于保护这些物种至关重要。本研究的结论对生物多样性保护当局、当地利益相关者以及致力于保护[栖息地名称缺失]栖息地的个人具有重要价值。
