Department of Public Health, College of Health Science, Debre Markos University, Debre Markos, Amhara, Ethiopia
School of Public Health, Faculty of Health, University of Technology Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
BMJ Open. 2022 Nov 9;12(11):e063879. doi: 10.1136/bmjopen-2022-063879.
OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to assess the incidence and predictors of mortality in adolescents receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Ethiopia's Amhara Region. DESIGN: We conducted an institution-based retrospective follow-up study. SETTINGS: The study was conducted at Amhara Region's comprehensive specialised hospitals in Ethiopia. PARTICIPANTS: We included 961 randomly selected medical records of adolescents receiving ART between January 2005 and June 2020. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOMES: The incidence of mortality since ART treatment initiation served as the primary outcome, and predictors of mortality served as secondary outcomes. We used Cox proportional hazard regression to examine the relationship between mortality and its predictors. Variables with p values<0.05 in the multivariable analysis were considered statistically significant mortality predictors. Adjusted HR (aHR) with 95% CI was used to measure the strength of association. RESULTS: More than half (n=496, 53.5%) of the adolescents living with HIV (ALHIV) were girls. The adolescent mortality rate was 1.52 (95% CI: 1.04 to 1.53) per 100 person-years throughout the follow-up period of 81 583 adolescent months. Mortality was higher for ALHIV who had not received formal education (aHR: 3.27, 95% CI: 1.36 to 7.87), had widowed parents (aHR: 1.85, CI: 95% 1.01 to 3.56) or received no social support (aHR: 2.81, 95% CI: 1.69 to 4.67). Adolescents who had opportunistic infections (OIs) at ART initiation (aHR: 1.94, 95% CI: 1.19 to 3.14), low haemoglobin (Hgb/g/l) levels (aHR: 2.17, 95% CI: 1.08 to 4.18), a bedridden functional status (aHR: 3.11, 95% CI: 1.64 to 5.72), stage IV clinical staging (aHR: 3.03, 95% CI: 1.46 to 6.30), non-disclosing status (aHR: 2.24, 95% CI:1.36 to 3.69) and CD4 count 200-350 cells/mm (aHR: 2.17, 95% CI: 1.08 to 4.18) also had a higher risk of death. Not receiving cotrimoxazole preventive therapy (aHR: 1.85, 95% CI: 1.07 to 3.22) and poor adherence to ART (aHR: 2.24, 95% CI: 1.27 to 3.95), compared with adherent, was associated with higher mortality risk. Changed treatment regimens were associated with lower mortality (aHR: 0.59, 95% CI: 0.35 to 0.98). CONCLUSIONS: Our study found a lower mortality rate for adolescents with HIV than previous Ethiopian studies, but our significant mortality predictors were similar to those found in earlier studies of adults and adolescents. Our findings reveal a potential point for health service improvement in Ethiopia: incorporating monitoring of Hgb levels into patient follow-up care, supporting recommendations that clinicians emphasise managing OIs and providing counselling services to improve adherence.
目的:本研究旨在评估在埃塞俄比亚阿姆哈拉地区接受抗逆转录病毒疗法(ART)的青少年的死亡率及其预测因素。 设计:我们进行了一项基于机构的回顾性随访研究。 地点:该研究在埃塞俄比亚阿姆哈拉地区的综合专科医院进行。 参与者:我们纳入了 2005 年 1 月至 2020 年 6 月期间接受 ART 治疗的 961 名随机选择的青少年的医疗记录。 主要和次要结果:ART 治疗开始后的死亡率是主要结果,死亡率的预测因素是次要结果。我们使用 Cox 比例风险回归来研究死亡率与死亡率预测因素之间的关系。多变量分析中 p 值<0.05 的变量被认为是具有统计学意义的死亡率预测因素。使用 95%置信区间的调整后 HR(aHR)来衡量关联的强度。 结果:超过一半(n=496,53.5%)的艾滋病毒青少年(ALHIV)是女孩。在 81583 个月的随访期间,青少年死亡率为每 100 人年 1.52(95%CI:1.04 至 1.53)。未接受正规教育(aHR:3.27,95%CI:1.36 至 7.87)、父母丧偶(aHR:1.85,CI:95%1.01 至 3.56)或未获得社会支持(aHR:2.81,95%CI:1.69 至 4.67)的 ALHIV 死亡率更高。在开始 ART 时患有机会性感染(OI)(aHR:1.94,95%CI:1.19 至 3.14)、低血红蛋白(Hgb/g/l)水平(aHR:2.17,95%CI:1.08 至 4.18)、卧床不起的功能状态(aHR:3.11,95%CI:1.64 至 5.72)、IV 期临床分期(aHR:3.03,95%CI:1.46 至 6.30)、不公开状态(aHR:2.24,95%CI:1.36 至 3.69)和 CD4 计数 200-350 个细胞/mm(aHR:2.17,95%CI:1.08 至 4.18)的青少年死亡风险也更高。与依从性相比,未接受复方新诺明预防治疗(aHR:1.85,95%CI:1.07 至 3.22)和 ART 依从性差(aHR:2.24,95%CI:1.27 至 3.95)与更高的死亡率风险相关。改变治疗方案与较低的死亡率相关(aHR:0.59,95%CI:0.35 至 0.98)。 结论:我们的研究发现,与以前的埃塞俄比亚研究相比,接受抗逆转录病毒疗法的青少年死亡率较低,但我们发现的显著死亡率预测因素与以前对成年人和青少年的研究相似。我们的研究结果揭示了埃塞俄比亚卫生服务改进的一个潜在切入点:将血红蛋白水平监测纳入患者随访护理,支持临床医生强调管理机会性感染并提供咨询服务以提高依从性的建议。
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