Tareke Abiyu Abadi, Enyew Ermias Bekele, Dubale Abiy Tasew, Shimie Aynadis Worku, Kasaye Mulugeta Desalegn, Eshetu Habitu Birhan
Department of Health Management Information System, West Gondar Zone Health Department, Gondar, Ethiopia.
Department of Health Informatics, Mettu University, Mettu, Ethiopia.
Arch Public Health. 2022 Nov 10;80(1):232. doi: 10.1186/s13690-022-00984-2.
Unintended pregnancy is a pregnancy either mistimed or unwanted. The main consequence of unintended pregnancy is inducing abortion. In Ethiopia, more than half of unintended pregnancies end up in abortion.
This study aims to measure the change in unintended pregnancy among women of reproductive age between survey years 2005 and 2016 and to identify the socio-demographic factors that most significantly contributed to the change.
Data from the two most recent Ethiopian Demographic and Health Surveys (EDHS) were analyzed. We quantified the contribution of socio-demographic factors in the change of unintended pregnancy, using Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition for non-linear regression models by applying the STATA command 'mvdcmp'.
Unintended pregnancy decreased from 37% in 2005 to 27% in 2016 in Ethiopia. Both changes in population characteristics and coefficient were the contributing elements to the observed change in unintended pregnancy. Among population characteristics factors, being a partial decision-maker and being a slum in the Somali region contributed 10 and 14% to the change of unintended pregnancy between the 2005 and 2016. Of the coefficient factors, knowledge of modern family planning, being a partial decision-maker, media exposure, distance to health facilities, and health facility visits contributed to the change by 93, 43, 17, and 10% respectively.
The majority of the change in unintended pregnancy from 2005 to 2016 survey was due to differences in coefficients (85%). The principal contributing factors to the change of unintended pregnancy were FP knowledge, decision making, media exposure and health facility visits. Therefore, an interventional plan will be efficient, better, and more effective if focused on the larger contributing factors.
意外怀孕是指时机不当或意外受孕的怀孕情况。意外怀孕的主要后果是导致堕胎。在埃塞俄比亚，超过一半的意外怀孕最终以堕胎告终。
本研究旨在衡量2005年至2016年调查年份之间育龄妇女意外怀孕情况的变化，并确定对该变化贡献最大的社会人口因素。
对埃塞俄比亚最近两次人口与健康调查（EDHS）的数据进行了分析。我们使用STATA命令“mvdcmp”，通过对非线性回归模型应用奥瓦卡-布林德分解法，量化了社会人口因素在意外怀孕变化中的贡献。
埃塞俄比亚的意外怀孕率从2005年的37%降至2016年的27%。人口特征和系数的变化都是意外怀孕率变化的促成因素。在人口特征因素中，作为部分决策者以及居住在索马里地区的贫民窟分别对2005年至2016年意外怀孕率的变化贡献了10%和14%。在系数因素中，现代计划生育知识、作为部分决策者、媒体曝光、到医疗机构的距离以及就医次数分别对意外怀孕率的变化贡献了93%、43%、17%和10%。
2005年至2016年调查期间意外怀孕率变化的大部分原因是系数差异（85%）。意外怀孕率变化的主要促成因素是计划生育知识、决策、媒体曝光和就医次数。因此，如果干预计划侧重于更大的促成因素，将会更高效、更好且更有效。
