Zhang Xiao-Yu, Ma Lin-Lin, Chen Ning, Wu Dan-Dan, Yan Yu-Xiang
Department of Chronic Disease Management, Xi'an Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Xi'an, 710054, China.
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Capital Medical University, Beijing, 100069, China.
Arch Public Health. 2022 Nov 19;80(1):238. doi: 10.1186/s13690-022-00988-y.
Injury is an important cause of death in China. In the present study, we systematically analyzed the epidemiological characteristics and trends of injury death in Xi'an residents from 2005 to 2020.
Data on injury deaths from 2005 to 2020 were obtained from the "Xi'an Center for Disease Control and Prevention", injury deaths were classified according to the International Classification Disease-10th Revision (ICD-10). The data were stratified by gender, age groups, injury types, and then overall and type-specific injury mortality rates were estimated. Joinpoint regression analysis was conducted to estimate annual percent change (APC). The grey interval predicting method was used to predict the future characteristics of injury deaths in Xi'an city.
From 2005 to 2020, injury caused 32,596 deaths (5.79% of all deaths; 35.71/100000 population). Injury mortality rates were higher among males than females. Motor vehicle traffic accidents were the commonest injury type. The highest injury mortality rates were in those aged 85 years or older. Overall, Joinpoint regression analysis revealed that injury mortality had significantly (p < 0.05) decreasing trends. GM (1,1) model estimated that injury mortality will be on a declining curve.
Motor vehicle traffic accidents, transport accidents other than motor vehicles, unintentional falls, suicide, and accidental poisoning are the main causes of injury. The injury death rate is projected to decline over the next decade.
伤害是中国重要的死亡原因。在本研究中，我们系统分析了2005年至2020年西安市居民伤害死亡的流行病学特征和趋势。
从“西安市疾病预防控制中心”获取2005年至2020年的伤害死亡数据，根据国际疾病分类第十版（ICD - 10）对伤害死亡进行分类。数据按性别、年龄组、伤害类型分层，然后估计总体和特定类型的伤害死亡率。采用Joinpoint回归分析估计年度变化百分比（APC）。使用灰色区间预测法预测西安市未来伤害死亡的特征。
2005年至2020年，伤害导致32596人死亡（占所有死亡人数的5.79%；每10万人口中35.71人）。男性伤害死亡率高于女性。机动车交通事故是最常见的伤害类型。伤害死亡率最高的是85岁及以上人群。总体而言，Joinpoint回归分析显示伤害死亡率有显著（p < 0.05）下降趋势。GM（1,1）模型估计伤害死亡率将呈下降曲线。
机动车交通事故、非机动车运输事故、意外跌倒、自杀和意外中毒是伤害的主要原因。预计未来十年伤害死亡率将下降。
