The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on paediatric surgical volumes in Africa: A retrospective observational study.

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study is to investigate the impact that COVID-19 had on the pattern and trend of surgical volumes, urgency and reason for surgery during the first 6 months of the pandemic in sub-Saharan Africa.

METHODS

This retrospective facility-based study involved collection of paediatric operation data from operating theatre records across 5 hospitals from 3 countries: Zimbabwe, Zambia and Nigeria over the first half of 2019 and 2020 for comparison. Data concerning diagnosis, procedure, anaesthesia, grade, speciality, NCEPOD classification and indication was collected. The respective dates of enactment of cancellation policies in each country were used to compare changes in weekly median surgical case volume before cancellation using the Wilcoxon Sign-Rank Test.

RESULTS

A total of 1821 procedures were recorded over the study period. Surgical volumes experienced a precipitous drop overall from a median of 100 cases/week to 50 cases/week coinciding with cancellation of surgical electives. Median accumulated weekly procedures before COVID-related cancellation were significantly different from those after cancellation (p = 0.027). Emergency surgery fell by 23.3% while electives fell by 78,9% (P = 0.042). The most common primary indication for surgery was injury which experienced a 30.5% drop in number of procedures, only exceeded by congenital surgery which dropped 34.7%.

CONCLUSIONS

The effects of surgical cancellations during the covid-19 pandemic are particularly devastating in African countries where the unmet need and surgical caseload are high. Continued cancellations that have since occurred will cause similar drops in surgical case volume that these health systems may not have the resilience to recover from.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Level II.