Southampton Business School, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK.
Int J Health Policy Manag. 2023;12:7593. doi: 10.34172/ijhpm.2022.7593. Epub 2022 Nov 1.
Holmström et al provide an interesting and thought-provoking contribution to a perennial problem: why, despite a vast number of applications of simulation modelling in healthcare over the past 70 years, there is still remarkably little evidence of successful implementation of model results. Their paper is a retrospective analysis of five case studies, all undertaken as consultancy, that used a blend of system dynamics (SD) modelling and action research (AR). This commentary assesses the effectiveness of this approach in achieving implementation, based on the evidence presented, and discusses some of the issues raised. These issues include a comparison of Holmström's approach with group model building (GMB) in SD, the differences between healthcare modelling projects undertaken by (a) business consultants and (b) academics, and the challenges of undertaking 'systematic' reviews of the grey literature.
尽管过去 70 年来在医疗保健领域应用仿真建模的数量众多,但成功实施模型结果的证据仍然非常少。他们的论文是对五个案例研究的回顾性分析,这些研究都是作为咨询工作进行的,使用了系统动力学 (SD) 建模和行动研究 (AR) 的混合方法。本评论根据所提出的证据评估了这种方法在实现实施方面的有效性,并讨论了所提出的一些问题。这些问题包括将霍尔姆斯特伦的方法与 SD 中的群体模型构建 (GMB) 进行比较、由 (a) 商业顾问和 (b) 学者进行的医疗保健建模项目之间的差异,以及对灰色文献进行“系统”审查的挑战。