Al-Raeei Marwan
Faculty of Sciences, Damascus University, Damascus, Syrian Arab Republic.
Beni Suef Univ J Basic Appl Sci. 2022;11(1):135. doi: 10.1186/s43088-022-00316-x. Epub 2022 Nov 7.
A recent outbreak of the monkey pox virus disease (MPVD) started to spread over the world before the second half of the 2022 year. This outbreak of the monkey pox virus disease is known as the 2022 outbreak of the monkey pox virus disease. The monkey pox virus disease is a type of the pox disease similar to the human one. This disease is an endemic in some African countries; however, a new spreading of this disease started to appear in other countries, such as the Spain, brazil, Greece, the United Kingdom, and Portugal, Australia, and the USA. As of the end of September 2022, the MPVD spread over than 107 countries over the world.
This study focuses on the employing of the simplest model of the diseases forecasting which is SIRD model for the finding of the basic reproductive ratio of the monkey pox virus disease in multiple countries over the world where the disease spreads. The model takes into accounts the number of the susceptible people, the number of the infectious people, the number of the recovered people, and the number of the deceased people. Based on the results of the SIRD model coefficients, we find that the basic reproductive ratio values of the recent spreading of the monkey pox virus disease are 1.3274 for the United Kingdom where the first case of the disease was recorded, 1.0714 for the United Arab Emirates, 1.0866 for Nigeria, 1.5589 for Brazil, and 1.3610 for Canada.
We find that the average value of the basic reproductive ratio of the 2022 outbreak of the monkey pox virus disease is about 1.2809. This important result of our calculations predicts that the 2022 outbreak of the monkey pox virus disease is turned into pandemic over the world. The things which confirm this result, based on our calculations, are the values of the basic reproductive ratio of the 2022 outbreak of the disease in the considered countries from multiple continents where all the values of the basic reproductive ratio are bigger than one. From this point, the counties over the world must apply multiple procedures for limiting the spreading of the monkey pox virus disease.
2022年下半年之前，猴痘病毒病（MPVD）近期爆发并开始在全球蔓延。此次猴痘病毒病爆发被称为2022年猴痘病毒病爆发。猴痘病毒病是一种类似于人类痘病的痘病类型。这种疾病在一些非洲国家呈地方性流行；然而，该疾病开始在其他国家出现新的传播情况，如西班牙、巴西、希腊、英国、葡萄牙、澳大利亚和美国。截至2022年9月底，猴痘病毒病已蔓延至全球107多个国家。
本研究着重采用最简单的疾病预测模型即SIRD模型，来确定猴痘病毒病在全球多个疾病传播国家的基本繁殖率。该模型考虑了易感人群数量、感染人群数量、康复人群数量和死亡人群数量。基于SIRD模型系数的结果，我们发现，在记录到首例病例的英国，近期猴痘病毒病传播的基本繁殖率值为1.3274，阿拉伯联合酋长国为1.0714，尼日利亚为1.0866，巴西为1.5589，加拿大为1.3610。
我们发现2022年猴痘病毒病爆发的基本繁殖率平均值约为1.2809。我们计算得出的这一重要结果预测，2022年猴痘病毒病爆发将在全球演变为大流行。基于我们的计算，证实这一结果的是来自多个大洲的被考虑国家中2022年该疾病爆发的基本繁殖率值，所有这些基本繁殖率值均大于1。从这一点来看，世界各国必须采取多种措施来限制猴痘病毒病的传播。
