Al-Raeei Marwan
Faculty of Sciences, Damascus University, Damascus, the Syrian Arab Republic.
Ann Med Surg (Lond). 2023 Feb 7;85(2):316-321. doi: 10.1097/MS9.0000000000000229. eCollection 2023 Feb.
As of May 2022, a new outbreak of the human monkeypox (MPOX) disease appeared in multiple countries, where the 2022 human MPOX disease spread to more than 109 cases, excluding the suspected cases up to the end of 2022. The deaths of the 2022 human MPOX exceeded 200 cases up to the same date. The human MPOX is not a new disease, this disease was once endemic in some countries on the African continent. Despite this, this disease began to spread in a number of countries around the world in 2022. The first case of the 2022 human MPOX was recorded in the United Kingdom in May. After that date, this disease began to become a pandemic in a number of other countries, such as the United States, Spain, and Brazil. The 2022 human MPOX is a type of viral disease caused by a viral virus, the MPOX virus, and this virus causes rashes and lesions over the skin of the patient, as well as in the mouth of the patient. Multiple effective indicators are employed for the study of the 2022 of the human MPOX, such as the herd immunity of the human MPOX (HIhMPOX), the basic reproduction number of the human MPOX (BRNhMPOX), and the infection period of the human MPOX. This study focuses on the study of the herd immunity of, and the basic reproduction number of the 2022 outbreak of human MPOX in multiple countries around the world. This study employed the semianalytical method of the Susceptible compartment S, Infectious compartment I, Recovered compartment R (SIR) pandemic model including the mortality for the study of the herd immunity, and the basic reproduction number of the 2022 human MPOX disease. It is found that the average value of the herd immunity for the human MPOX disease in 2022 equals to 0.2194, that is, 21.94% for multiple countries, and equals to 35.52% for the United States, and 30.99% for Spain. Also, it is found that the average value of the basic reproduction number of the 2022 human MPOX disease equals to 1.2810 for multiple countries. It is concluded from these values that 21.94% of the total susceptible population has to be immunized in an effective way to prevent the spreading of the disease. Also, based on the previous values, it is concluded that the status of the 2022 MPOX disease is spreading as a pandemic.
截至2022年5月，人类猴痘（MPOX）疾病在多个国家出现新的疫情爆发，截至2022年底，2022年人类猴痘疾病传播至109多例，不包括疑似病例。截至同一日期，2022年人类猴痘死亡病例超过200例。人类猴痘并非新疾病，该疾病曾在非洲大陆的一些国家流行。尽管如此，2022年该疾病开始在世界上一些国家传播。2022年人类猴痘的首例病例于5月在英国被记录。在那之后，该疾病开始在其他一些国家成为大流行病，如美国、西班牙和巴西。2022年人类猴痘是由一种病毒——猴痘病毒引起的病毒性疾病，这种病毒会在患者的皮肤上以及口腔中引发皮疹和病变。对2022年人类猴痘的研究采用了多个有效指标，如人类猴痘的群体免疫力（HIhMPOX）、人类猴痘的基本繁殖数（BRNhMPOX）以及人类猴痘的感染期。本研究聚焦于对全球多个国家2022年人类猴痘疫情的群体免疫力和基本繁殖数的研究。本研究采用了包含死亡率的易感 compartment S、感染 compartment I、康复 compartment R（SIR）大流行模型的半分析方法，来研究2022年人类猴痘疾病的群体免疫力和基本繁殖数。研究发现，2022年人类猴痘疾病的群体免疫力平均值等于0.2194，即多个国家为21.94%，美国为35.52%，西班牙为30.99%。此外，研究发现2022年人类猴痘疾病的基本繁殖数平均值对于多个国家等于1.2810。从这些数值可以得出结论，必须以有效的方式对21.94%的总易感人群进行免疫接种，以防止疾病传播。同样，基于先前的数值，可以得出2022年猴痘疾病正作为大流行病传播的结论。
