Exploring and attributing change to fractional vegetation coverage in the middle and lower reaches of Hanjiang River Basin, China.

The middle and lower reaches of Hanjiang River Basin (MLHB), areas that have an important ecological function in China, have experienced great changes in the vegetation ecosystem driven by natural environmental change and human activity. Here, we explored the spatio-temporal dynamics of fractional vegetation coverage (FVC) and quantitatively analyzed its driving factors to advance current understanding of how the ecological environment has changed. Specifically, we used the dimidiate pixel model to calculate the FVC of the MLHB from 2001 to 2018 based on Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) data. We then used Theil-Sen median slope (Sen's slope) and coefficient of variation (CV) to explore spatial and temporal variations, as well as characteristics in fluctuations. Finally, we utilized a geographical detector model (with spatial scale effects and spatial data discretization tests) to quantify the influence of the detected natural and human factors. Results showed that average annual FVC was 0.30-0.75 for ~90% of the study area over the 19-year study period with a heterogeneous spatial distribution. FVC variation trend displayed stability and improvement. Areas with higher FVC displayed greater stability. All 10 detected natural and anthropogenic factors were responsible for changes in FVC. The primary factors causing FVC to change were precipitation (in 2001) and slope (in 2018), followed by landform type, distance to water, and nighttime light (NTL) (in 2018). Precipitation and slope consistently displayed the largest interaction across all years. The interaction between human and topographical factors had gradually increasing significance on changes in FVC over the research period. The range and type of factors suitable for promoting vegetation growth were detected in the study area. Results of this study can provide a scientific basis for developing effective strategies for local vegetation protection, restoration, and land resource management.