Huang Y, Zheng Z W, Chen C, Li K, Chen S Y, Chen Y Y, Jing Q L, Ma Y, Luo L, Yang Z C, Zhang Z B
Guangzhou Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 510440, China Institute of Public Health, Guangzhou Medical University, Guangzhou 510440, China.
Guangzhou Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 510440, China.
Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi. 2022 Nov 10;43(11):1705-1710. doi: 10.3760/cma.j.cn112338-20220523-00450.
To understand the epidemiological characteristics of two local COVID-19 outbreaks caused by 2019-nCoV Omicron variant in Guangzhou, such as incubation period, serial interval, basic reproductive number () and the influence of gathering places on , and provide evidence for the prevention and control of Omicron variant infection. The data of daily confirmed cases of Omicron variant infection from April 8 to May 8, 2022 in two COVID-19 outbreaks in Guangzhou were collected for model fitting. Weibull, Gamma and lognormal distribution were used to estimate incubation period and serial interval. Exponential growth method and the maximum likelihood estimation were used to estimate . The median of incubation period was 2.94 (95%: 2.52-3.38) days and median of serial interval was 3.32 (95%: 2.89-3.81) days. The estimated in small-size place was 4.40 (95%: 3.95-4.85), while the estimated at airport was 11.35 (95%: 11.02-11.67). The incubation period of Omicron variant in two local COVID-19 outbreaks in Guangzhou is significantly shorter than that of delta variant. The higher the gathering degree in a place, the larger the . Due to its rapid transmission, COVID-19 epidemic is prone to occur. Therefore, the COVID-19 prevention and control strategy should be dynamically adjusted in time.
为了解广州由2019-nCoV奥密克戎变异株引起的两起本地新冠疫情的流行病学特征,如潜伏期、代间距、基本再生数((R_0))以及聚集场所对(R_0)的影响,为奥密克戎变异株感染的防控提供依据。收集广州两起新冠疫情中2022年4月8日至5月8日奥密克戎变异株感染每日确诊病例的数据进行模型拟合。采用威布尔分布、伽马分布和对数正态分布估计潜伏期和代间距。采用指数增长法和最大似然估计法估计(R_0)。潜伏期中位数为2.94(95%:2.52 - 3.38)天,代间距中位数为3.32(95%:2.89 - 3.81)天。小型场所估计的(R_0)为4.40(95%:3.95 - 4.85),而机场估计的(R_0)为11.35(95%:11.02 - 11.67)。广州两起本地新冠疫情中奥密克戎变异株的潜伏期显著短于德尔塔变异株。场所聚集程度越高,(R_0)越大。由于其传播速度快,新冠疫情容易发生。因此,新冠防控策略应及时动态调整。